Rising inflation and stagnant real wages, worsened by Trump's policies, will likely cost Republicans heavily in the 2026 midterms
Source: Ian Prasad Philbrick. "Inflation report: Prices are up and real wages are down, thanks to Trump's policies.." October 14, 2026. slate.com
The Gist
Prices are rising faster again and paychecks aren't keeping up, and the author says Trump's tariffs and Iran war made things worse. Since voters care most about what things cost, the author argues Republicans are likely to do badly in the midterms, much as they did in 2018 even when the economy was in better shape.
Conclusion
Because voters prioritize prices and wages, and because inflation is rising while real wages are stagnant (partly due to Trump's tariffs and Iran war), Trump's party is probably in for a drubbing in the November 2026 midterms.
Premises
- Voters currently weigh living costs and wage purchasing power more heavily than other economic indicators such as stock prices or unemployment.
- Annual inflation reached 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% in August and 3.0% when Trump took office, and gasoline is about 40% more expensive than a year ago at $4.33 per gallon.
- Price increases have outpaced average hourly wage growth for six straight months, leaving the typical earner's real take-home pay roughly unchanged since Trump returned to office.
- Although macroeconomic forces outside presidential control affect prices, Trump's policies, namely tariffs and the Iran war that raised energy prices, have contributed to the price increases.
- Unlike 2018, when inflation was 2.2%, gas was $2.76, and majorities viewed Trump's economic record favorably, Democrats now lead polls on inflation, the economy, and prosperity.
- Economic fundamentals that drive most electoral outcomes are already baked in this close to the election.
Assumptions
- Voter perceptions of cost of living and real wages translate directly into voting behavior against the president's party.
- Voters will attribute inflation and wage stagnation to Trump and Republicans rather than to external factors.
- Current polling leads on economic issues will persist through Election Day.
- The tariffs and the Iran war are significant causes of the current inflation, not minor contributors.
- The 2018 midterm is a valid comparison, and economic conditions are the main differentiator between the two cycles.
- Voters judge inflation by price levels and trajectory rather than by comparison to the 9% peak.