Republicans Repeated the Iraq War Mistake: Iran War Is Driving a 2006-Style Midterm Wipeout
Source: Brianna Lyman. "GOP Learned Nothing From 2006 About Midterms, Foreign Wars." November 4, 2026. thefederalist.com
The Gist
The author says the Iran war is hurting Republicans at the polls the same way the Iraq War did in 2006. Voters disapprove of the war, they were told it would be quick and easy, and many say they're voting against Trump because of it. In her view, the GOP ignored the lesson of Iraq.
Conclusion
Republicans failed to learn from 2006: by pursuing an Iran war that was promised to be quick and costless, they have triggered a midterm backlash comparable to the one that punished the GOP over the Iraq War.
Premises
- In 2006, 56 percent of voters disapproved of the Iraq War and they backed Democrats 80 to 18 percent, producing a major GOP defeat.
- In 2026, 65 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of military action in Iran, and about one-third of voters (per AP) say the war was a crucial factor in their congressional vote.
- War advocates (Thiessen, Stephens, Carafano) publicly promised that striking Iran had no downside and that the war was already won, yet the war continues to drag on.
- Trump's approval on foreign-policy decision-making fell from 53 to 35 percent between November 2024 and last month, and confidence in his economic decision-making fell from 59 to 35 percent.
- Voter attitudes and behavior mirror 2006: then 59 to 35 percent said Iraq had not made America safer and 36 percent voted against Bush, while now 44 percent say their congressional vote is a vote against Trump.
Assumptions
- Similarity in public opinion metrics between 2006 and 2026 implies similar electoral causes and outcomes
- The Iran war, rather than other factors such as the economy, is the main driver of Republican losses
- The midterm results are or will be a wipeout comparable to 2006 (the article relies on a quoted claim, not results)
- Pundits' predictions represent the views or influence of the Republican establishment and war advocates generally
- Disapproval of war handling translates into votes against the incumbent party
- Pre-war promises of a quick, low-cost war were a key reason for the war's launch and for the backlash when they proved wrong