Republican Midterm Campaigns Are Faltering Because Trump's Unpopularity, the Iran War, and Policy Betrayals Leave Candidates Trapped
Source: Benjamin Wallace-Wells. "The Republicans’ Remarkably Bad Midterm Campaigns | The New Yorker." October 25, 2026. www.newyorker.com
The Gist
The author argues that Republicans are doing surprisingly badly this fall, even in states Trump won easily, because Trump is unpopular and his decisions, especially the Iran war and his deals with Russia, hurt the people running under his banner. Candidates try to avoid him or criticize him, but that doesn't work, because they still need his support and his choices keep dragging them down.
Conclusion
The Republicans' 2026 midterm campaigns are going remarkably badly, largely because of Trump's own decisions, especially the Iran war and the resulting economic pain and the Russia concessions. Republican candidates cannot escape the damage by distancing themselves from him, and the war has exposed him to some of his base as siding with oligarchs rather than with them.
Premises
- Republicans are competitive or trailing in races in states Trump won easily in 2024, including North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and possibly Iowa, Kansas, and Mississippi, and the party has stopped funding some races.
- Trump's approval has fallen below forty percent since late March and is now comparable to George W. Bush's in his second term, so candidates treat him as a liability (over 99% of GOP ad spending avoids mentioning him, and many candidates publicly disagree with him).
- The Iran war, which began in February, raised energy prices and inflation, undercutting Republicans' affordability message and forcing them to defend an unpopular war.
- Trump's responses to the resulting problems, such as buying Russian diesel, suspending the Russia sanctions package, and Musk throttling Ukraine's Starshield access, contradict his own party's positions and have alienated even loyal Republicans like Hinson and Graham.
- The distancing strategy is itself backfiring: it either fails (as with the Ramaswamy ad, which drew a split among Republicans and was praised by Trump and Vance) or highlights party division, while candidates like Graham still depend on Trump's help to win.
Assumptions
- Trump's declining approval and the war's economic effects are the main causes of Republican electoral weakness, rather than other factors such as candidate quality or national trends.
- Prediction markets and polling accurately reflect the likely outcomes of the elections.
- Candidates' public statements of disagreement reflect real political vulnerability rather than ordinary tactical positioning.
- The war in Iran caused the energy price and inflation increases, and voters hold Trump responsible for them.
- Voters care about the Russia concessions and will see them as a betrayal, not as a pragmatic response to energy costs.
- Republican candidates face a genuine dilemma: they need Trump's base and support but are damaged by association with him.