Rejoin the EU, but delay any referendum until public support is overwhelming and solid
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/pollytoynbee. "Shall we have another EU referendum? Maybe – but not yet | Polly Toynbee | The Guardian." October 19, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author thinks Britain should work toward rejoining the EU because Brexit has hurt the economy and left the country isolated. But she warns that today's lead in the polls is too shaky to risk a referendum, given how nasty and misleading such campaigns get. She says to build a strong case first and only hold a vote once the result is virtually certain.
Conclusion
Britain should pursue rejoining the EU, but should not hold a referendum yet; it should hold one only once a strong pro-EU campaign has made public support so solid that the vote would merely rubber-stamp an overwhelming public will.
Premises
- Brexit has been economically and strategically damaging, costing roughly 8% of GDP and leaving Britain isolated in a world of great power blocs, with the US no longer fully reliable.
- Rejoining would deliver prosperity, security and democratic benefits, including returning lost foreign investment, cooperation against cyber-attacks and crime, and the ability to influence an EU that might shift rightward.
- Public opinion has moved toward rejoining (52% to 29% in IPPR/Persuasion UK polling), and the least popular option is keeping the current deal. Opposition to freedom of movement has also declined as cost of living replaces immigration as the top concern.
- However, this support is still 'soft' and the EU currently has low salience, just as it did before 2016, when apparently comfortable polling led Cameron into a disastrous referendum.
- Referendum campaigns are dominated by social-media lies and slogans ('£350m a week', 'take back control') that rational, fact-based focus groups cannot replicate, and Brexiters such as Farage are already mobilising with claims like a £42bn annual fee.
- Therefore a premature referendum risks losing and repeating the 2016 mistake, so a strong pro-EU case must first be made and public opinion consolidated.
Assumptions
- A lead of 52% to 29% in polling is not reliable enough to predict a referendum result once a campaign begins.
- Referendum campaigns shift opinion toward the side using emotive, simplistic messaging, and the pro-rejoin side cannot counter this without a long head start.
- Waiting will strengthen rather than erode pro-rejoin sentiment, through demographic change and the continuing visibility of Brexit's costs.
- A referendum is required, or at least politically necessary, for rejoining, and a later one remains feasible.
- The EU would accept the UK back on acceptable terms once Britain decides what it wants.
- The 8% GDP cost and the security benefits are accurate and will persuade voters.