Putin's Ukraine War Is Failing and Threatens His Grip on Power
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/rajan-menon. "After four bloody years, the war on Ukraine might be turning into Putin’s undoing | Rajan Menon | The Guardian." May 15, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that Putin's war in Ukraine is backfiring badly. After four years, Russia has suffered huge losses while gaining almost no territory, the economy is struggling, and even Putin's supporters are getting worried about losing the war.
Conclusion
Putin's war in Ukraine, which he expected to be his crowning achievement, is instead failing and may prove to be his political undoing
Premises
- The war has produced massive Russian casualties (1.3 million dead or wounded) with minimal territorial gains (only 0.8% of Ukrainian territory gained in the previous year)
- Ukraine's advanced drone warfare has transformed the battlefield, making Russian military advances extremely costly and difficult
- The war has severely damaged Russia's economy through labor shortages, reduced growth (from 4.9% to 1%), and widespread business losses
- The conflict has brought the war home to Russia through Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, including major cities and infrastructure
- Signs of anxiety and dissent are emerging within Putin's inner circle and among traditionally loyal supporters
- Even pro-war military bloggers are criticizing Russian military performance and warning of potential defeat
Assumptions
- Military casualties and economic costs will eventually translate into political pressure on Putin
- Drone technology advantages will continue to favor Ukraine over traditional Russian military tactics
- Public opinion in Russia will turn against Putin as the war's costs become more apparent
- Historical precedents (like 1917 Russian revolutions) are relevant to current circumstances