Putin's Preference for Brexit Reveals Its Error and Justifies Restoring Closer EU Ties
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/rafaelbehr. "Brexiters can’t cope with the fact that Putin was cheering them on | Rafael Behr | The Guardian." October 13, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that Russia wanted Brexit to happen and likely helped it along, though that probably didn't decide the vote. The fact that Putin and Trump both dislike the EU shows why leaving it was a mistake, and Brexit supporters are wrong to get defensive when someone suggests Britain should move back toward Europe.
Conclusion
The fact that Russia (and similar authoritarian powers like Trump's US) preferred Brexit shows that Brexit was a strategic and patriotic error, one that is more evident today than in 2016, so Britain should pursue closer ties with the EU and Brexiters should stop denying Russia's preference or crying betrayal at the idea of reversal.
Premises
- Russia's Kremlin has a well-documented record of interfering in elections abroad (bots, dirty money, conspiracy theories, stoking social tensions), so it is inconceivable that these tools were not used to support Brexit.
- Brexit supporters had an incentive to deny Russian interference or its preference, because they do not want their victory recast as serving a hostile power. The backlash against Burnham is explained by this.
- Acknowledging Russian interference is compatible with accepting the referendum result as legitimate, since Leave won enough arguments on its own (e.g. immigration) and the actual impact of meddling cannot be known.
- Putin and Trump share an imperial, transactional, lawless worldview in which strong states dominate smaller neighbours, which leads to conflict absent an international legal framework.
- The EU was founded on the opposite principle, replacing nationalistic rivalry with cooperation under common law, which is why Putin and Trump hate and misunderstand it.
- In 2016 the pro-EU side failed to make the danger of strategic isolation vivid, but Trump's behaviour and Russia's war on Ukraine have since made that danger clear, and Brexit made Britain poorer and weaker.
- Isolation from Europe is what Britain's enemies wanted in 2016 and would want now, so staying on that path serves them rather than the country.
Assumptions
- An adversary's preference for an outcome is meaningful evidence that the outcome harms one's own interests.
- Russian meddling in other countries' elections is sufficient evidence that it meddled in the Brexit referendum.
- The EU is an effective bulwark against Russian and Trump-style power politics.
- Brexit's economic and strategic costs are real and outweigh its benefits.
- Leaving the EU and being aligned with Russian interests are linked in a way that bears on the merits of Brexit.
- Closer ties with the EU are feasible and would not carry offsetting costs.
- Trump's US and Putin's Russia can be fairly characterized as equivalent in worldview and conduct.