Putin's Bombing Campaign Will Fail to Break Ukrainian Resolve
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/rajan-menon. "Putin’s escalating bombing campaign won’t break Ukrainians’ resolve. History shows that it’s doomed to fail | Rajan Menon | The Guardian." October 5, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that Putin's intensified bombing of Ukrainian cities won't succeed in forcing Ukraine to surrender territory, because history shows bombing campaigns tend to harden civilian resolve rather than break it. He backs this up with polling showing Ukrainians strongly oppose peace deals involving land concessions, plus evidence that Russia itself is suffering from heavy casualties, economic strain, and military setbacks.
Conclusion
Putin's escalating bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities will not force Ukraine to accept peace on his terms, even under the stress of a harsh winter.
Premises
- Historical precedent shows that bombing campaigns targeting civilians typically strengthen rather than crush morale and resistance
- Polling data (December 2025 KIIS survey) shows strong Ukrainian opposition to trading land for peace, with three-quarters rejecting a hypothetical deal involving territorial concessions
- Ukrainians view resistance as essential for national survival and independence, not merely a political preference
- Ukrainians distrust land-for-peace proposals, believing Putin would use any deal to regroup before renewing aggression, and view Trump's emissaries as Putin partisans rather than neutral mediators
- Russia itself faces significant strain: massive casualties (1.5 million), manpower shortages requiring foreign mercenaries, minimal territorial gains in 2026, and troop losses exceeding monthly intake
- Russia's economy is suffering from labor shortages, high defense spending (35% of 2027 federal budget), and fuel shortages from Ukrainian strikes on refineries (30% drop in throughput, 21% price surge)
- Ukraine has successfully disrupted Russian military logistics through drone attacks and operations like Vivaldi, forcing tactical retreats
Assumptions
- Past patterns of civilian response to bombing campaigns (e.g., in WWII Britain/Germany) will hold true for the current Ukrainian context
- Current Ukrainian public opinion (as of December 2025) will remain stable despite potentially worsening winter conditions this year
- Russia's internal economic and military pressures will continue to accumulate rather than stabilize or be offset by external support
- Ukrainian morale and resistance capacity are not purely a function of material conditions (heat, power, safety) but also of ideological commitment
- Putin's strategic calculus is primarily about breaking civilian will rather than achieving military victory through other means