Premature Victory Declaration in Venezuela Could Lead to Strategic Disaster
Source: Joseph Addington. "Don’t Declare ‘Mission Accomplished’ in Venezuela Yet - The American Conservative." March 11, 2026. www.theamericanconservative.com
The Gist
The author argues that despite successfully capturing Venezuela's dictator Maduro, the U.S. shouldn't celebrate victory yet. He warns that pushing for democracy too quickly could trigger a violent insurgency from threatened government officials and drug cartels, potentially turning the military success into a long-term disaster like Colombia's decades-long civil war.
Conclusion
The U.S. should not declare 'mission accomplished' in Venezuela despite the successful capture of Maduro, as significant risks remain that could turn the apparent success into a strategic failure
Premises
- The capture of Maduro was only one step on a long road fraught with hazards, not a complete resolution
- Pressure for democratization could destabilize the current superficial stability by threatening remaining Chavista officials with imprisonment
- Threatened Chavista leaders like Diosdado Cabello may launch an insurgency rather than face lifetime imprisonment under a democratic transition
- Drug cartels and Colombian narcoterrorists operating in Venezuela could ally with defecting government forces to create a devastating insurgency
- Any new democratic government would face the impossible task of fighting organized crime with police and military forces of questionable loyalty
- Colombia's decades-long civil war with narcoterrorists demonstrates the worst-case scenario for what could happen in Venezuela
- American attention is being diverted by other conflicts and domestic politics, while political pressure for democratization continues to mount
Assumptions
- The current stability in Venezuela under Delcy Rodríguez is only superficial and temporary
- Chavista officials and organized crime groups will choose violent resistance over peaceful transition
- Democratic transitions inherently create power vacuums that criminal organizations can exploit
- The U.S. military presence is insufficient for effective counterinsurgency operations
- Political pressure will eventually force the Trump administration to pursue democratization despite the risks