Post-Midterm US Escalation Against Iran Will Backfire and Trump Should Instead Return to the Existing Deal
Source: Branko Marcetic. "The Iran War Might Soon Get Catastrophically Worse." October 31, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that Trump is likely to launch a major new bombing campaign on Iran after the midterms, expecting Iran to give in. But Iran's hard-line leaders are more defiant than ever, can't be bombed out of their nuclear program, and have threatened devastating retaliation. So the better move would be to take the deal already on the table.
Conclusion
A renewed, escalatory US bombing campaign against Iran after the midterms is unlikely to force Iranian capitulation and will instead provoke catastrophic regional and global blowback, so Trump should take the diplomatic deal already agreed rather than escalate.
Premises
- Trump is reportedly planning a renewed 'short, intense' attack on Iran's infrastructure, munitions, and nuclear sites after the midterms, encouraged by Netanyahu, who has political incentives to restart the war.
- Trump's past conduct (violating agreements, a sneak attack that killed Iranian officials, killing the previous supreme leader) has delegitimized Iranian moderates and empowered hard-liners who see deals as pointless and are willing to absorb great pain, and who are now considering a nuclear weapon.
- Iran's buried nuclear sites are effectively unreachable by air, so bombing cannot reliably eliminate the nuclear program and a ground operation would be risky and uncertain.
- Iran has unplayed military options and has openly threatened to widen the war, hit Gulf energy and water infrastructure, undersea cables, data centers, and possibly US political targets, which could trigger a global recession, a refugee crisis, and an escalation spiral.
- Because Iranian leaders see themselves as having nothing to lose and the two sides remain far apart, one more push is unlikely to produce capitulation, contrary to the White House's belief.
Assumptions
- Reports of Trump's planned attack are accurate and the attack will be launched or will resemble what is described.
- Iranian threats of retaliation are credible and Iran has the capability to carry them out.
- Iran's hard-line leadership is insensitive to civilian suffering and will not capitulate under additional bombing.
- The previously agreed deal is still available and acceptable to both sides.
- Past patterns of escalation, such as the earlier limited war and sanctions, predict how Iran will respond to a more intense campaign.
- The political cost to Trump of accepting a deal would be smaller than the cost of a failed escalation.