Post-midterm Trump and Netanyahu will likely resume war on Iran, and only a united global diplomatic front can prevent it
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/simontisdall. "Trump is in a corner and likely to lash out at Iran again. Here’s how to avert that disaster | Simon Tisdall | The Guardian." October 28, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author thinks that once the US midterm elections are over, Trump and Netanyahu will be free and eager to attack Iran again for personal and political reasons, with disastrous results for the world. But he argues war isn't inevitable, and that Europe and other democracies should act together now to warn them off while supporting regional peace efforts.
Conclusion
Britain, its European allies and the world's democracies should jointly and urgently warn the US and Israel, through a formal demarche, that renewed war on Iran will bring a permanent rupture and serious consequences, while backing ongoing regional diplomacy, in order to prevent a looming catastrophe.
Premises
- After the midterms, Trump will no longer be constrained by electoral considerations and will be free to pursue his personal vendetta against Iran for defying him, regardless of the stated justifications such as nuclear threats.
- Netanyahu has strong personal and political incentives (staying in power and out of jail, shaping post-election coalition talks) to restart the war.
- A renewed US-Israeli assault would very likely fail to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities or topple the regime, while lengthening the war and increasing civilian suffering.
- The foreseeable consequences are severe: oil price spikes, Gulf and shipping disruptions, regional conflict spread, attacks on US personnel, erosion of democratic accountability, transatlantic splits, and gains for Russia and China.
- Resumed war is not inevitable: the Qatar-mediated talks have not collapsed, Gulf and regional states (Oman, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkey) are actively pursuing diplomacy, and a regional non-aggression pact is a plausible long-term solution.
- Since Trump and Netanyahu probably want war, only firm, united, rapid pressure from the world's democracies can head them off.
Assumptions
- Trump's and Netanyahu's motives are primarily personal and political rather than strategic or security-based.
- Trump and Netanyahu are sensitive to diplomatic and economic pressure from allies and the wider world.
- European and other democratic governments have enough leverage and cohesion to make a credible threat of 'rupture'.
- The war is illegitimate and unjustified, so external pressure to stop it is legitimate.
- The predicted outcomes of renewed war (failure, escalation, global harm) are reliable given the track record of the earlier phases.
- Pentagon and press reports about Trump's plans are accurate, despite the author's admission some may be disinformation.