Orbán's defeat won't guarantee Hungary's return to liberal democracy due to structural obstacles and Magyar's conservative ideology
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/gabriela-greilinger,https://www.theguardian.com/profile/cas-mudde. "Even if Victor Orbán is ousted on Sunday, Hungary’s return to liberal democracy is not guaranteed | Gabriela Greilinger and Cas Mudde | The Guardian." April 10, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The authors argue that even if Hungary's opposition leader Péter Magyar defeats Viktor Orbán in the upcoming election, Hungary won't become a liberal democracy again anytime soon. This is because Orbán has rigged the system so deeply over 16 years that it would be nearly impossible to undo, and Magyar himself is actually quite conservative and similar to Orbán on many issues.
Conclusion
Even if Viktor Orbán loses the election, Hungary's return to liberal democracy is not guaranteed and unlikely in the near term
Premises
- Orbán has systematically tilted the electoral playing field through gerrymandering, winner compensation rules, and granting voting rights to supportive minorities abroad
- Fidesz has entrenched itself in Hungary's institutions through cardinal laws requiring supermajorities to change, with loyalists in key positions like constitutional court and media authority
- Without a two-thirds parliamentary majority, dismantling the Orbán regime will be nearly impossible due to these structural barriers
- Péter Magyar is ideologically conservative, was a Fidesz member for over two decades, and his party aligns with Fidesz on key issues like immigration and Ukraine
- The new parliament will consist solely of rightwing parties, with no progressive representation to push for liberal democratic reforms
- Fidesz has been in power twice as long as Poland's PiS party, making it more deeply entrenched than comparable cases where democratic restoration proved difficult
Assumptions
- Liberal democracy requires more than just electoral competition - it needs institutional reforms and progressive values
- Past political affiliations and ideological alignment are reliable predictors of future governance
- Structural institutional barriers are more determinative than political will in democratic transitions
- The Polish experience with PiS provides a relevant comparison for Hungary's situation