Only Regime Collapse in Tehran Can End the Iran War, Not Negotiated Deals
Source: https://www.facebook.com/americanspectator/. "Trump Faces a Choice on Iran: Make a Deal or Escalate the War | The American Spectator | USA News and Politics." September 28, 2026. spectator.org
The Gist
The author argues that trying to make a peace deal with Iran is a waste of time because Iran isn't negotiating in good faith and is actually escalating the conflict through allies like the Houthis. Instead, he says Trump should support Iranian rebels and push for the collapse of the current government in Tehran, arguing that's the only real path to ending the war, and that Trump shouldn't wait until after the midterm elections to act.
Conclusion
Trump should abandon hope for a negotiated deal with Iran and instead pursue actions aimed at toppling the Tehran regime, rather than delaying decisive action until after the midterms.
Premises
- Iran is not negotiating in good faith, as shown by Iran's President Pezeshkian's UN speech declaring Iran will 'never bow our head or bend at the knee' and reject dialogue under pressure.
- Indirect negotiations through Pakistan, Qatar, and others have produced no progress, with Iran insisting on returning to a June 'Memorandum of Understanding' that has already been repeatedly violated.
- Iran's proxy the Houthis are actively escalating the conflict by launching ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia (including Mecca and Riyadh) and threatening to blockade the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, showing the war is expanding rather than de-anding.
- The regime is strategically using delay tactics in negotiations, hoping the U.S. will tire of the war and withdraw rather than achieve any genuine resolution.
- Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu insists Israel 'will win because we have no other choice' and that destroying Iran's nuclear facilities was necessary for survival, indicating the stakes are existential and cannot be resolved through half-measures.
- There are already scattered internal conflicts between Iranian revolutionaries and the Revolutionary Guard, suggesting the regime is vulnerable and could be toppled with U.S. support.
- Trump's political and economic incentives (midterm promises, lowering gas prices/inflation) depend on ending the war, but waiting for the midterms to decide risks prolonging the war unnecessarily when action now would be more effective.
Assumptions
- Regime change in Iran is achievable through arming and supporting internal revolutionaries.
- A negotiated deal with the current Iranian regime is inherently impossible or worthless given its track record.
- Israel's assessment of the threat (existential, requiring preemptive strikes) is accurate and should guide U.S. policy.
- Delaying decisive military action increases risk rather than allowing for better strategic positioning or diplomatic breakthroughs.
- The Iranian government does not represent a rational actor capable of compromise under different diplomatic conditions.
- U.S. support for Iranian revolutionaries would be effective and would not cause more regional instability.