Noboa's Lawfare Against the Opposition Is Eroding Ecuador's Democracy Toward Dictatorship
Source: Carlo Campo. "Is Ecuador Still a Democracy?." October 27, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that Ecuador's president, Daniel Noboa, is using prosecutors and courts to jail and sideline his political opponents, most recently opposition leader Luisa González. Because the courts are no longer independent and the cases look like pretexts, he says Ecuador is sliding from democracy toward dictatorship, and the Left will struggle to win elections fairly.
Conclusion
Under Daniel Noboa, Ecuador's democracy is being hollowed out: through the judicial persecution of opposition figures such as Luisa González, his government blurs the line between democracy and dictatorship and is making it nearly impossible for the Left to win at the ballot box.
Premises
- Ecuador's separation of powers no longer functions, because the public prosecutor's office and courts answer to the executive branch.
- González's arrest in the Caso Laberinto reopens the already-adjudicated Caso Caja Chica, in which the government failed to prove its accusations and which ended only in a fine, so the new charges look like a pretext rather than a legitimate prosecution.
- González's arrest fits a broader pattern of persecuting Correista and opposition figures: the mayor of Guayaquil Aquiles Álvarez is jailed on a dubious case, and former vice president Jorge Glas was seized from the Mexican embassy in violation of international law and is held in torturous conditions.
- The timing and selectivity of the prosecutions point to political motives: the arrest comes weeks before local elections, a year after González confronted Noboa over his family's banana shipments being used for cocaine trafficking, while campaign-finance questions about Noboa's own party go uninvestigated, and the opposition was already barred from the elections.
- Modern authoritarians no longer need soldiers in the streets; they capture democratic institutions, especially prosecutors and courts, and use them to judicially eliminate the opposition, a method aided by US support.
- Opposition lawmakers, lawyers, and journalists describe the arrests as a political 'spectacle' and 'kidnapping' and fear for their own safety, which suggests a climate of intimidation that extends beyond the Correistas.
Assumptions
- The prosecutions of González, Álvarez, and Glas are politically motivated rather than based on legitimate evidence of wrongdoing.
- Judicial and prosecutorial institutions in Ecuador are controlled by the executive, rather than acting independently.
- Selective prosecution of opposition leaders, combined with barring the opposition from elections, is sufficient to undermine democracy even if elections are still held.
- Statements from Correistas and their allies are credible evidence, despite their political interest in the matter.
- The earlier acquittal-like outcome of Caso Caja Chica should preclude reopening the matter, and doing so is evidence of bad faith.
- A democracy requires the opposition to be able to compete on fair terms, not only that elections occur.