Military Force Alone Cannot Solve Mexico's Cartel Problem - Capacity Building Required
Source: Joseph Addington. "Killing Cartel Bosses Won’t Solve Mexico’s Organized Crime Problems - The American Conservative." February 28, 2026. www.theamericanconservative.com
The Gist
The author argues that trying to defeat Mexican cartels by killing their leaders and using military force has failed before and will fail again. Instead of more violence, the U.S. and Mexico need to work together to strengthen Mexico's government institutions and find ways to make drug trafficking less profitable.
Conclusion
Killing cartel bosses and military operations alone will not solve Mexico's organized crime problems; instead, the U.S. and Mexico must focus on building state capacity and economic disruption strategies
Premises
- Previous military-focused anti-cartel campaigns (Fox and Calderón presidencies) failed despite killing thousands of criminals and capturing most wanted leaders
- The 2009-2015 period saw 33 of 37 targeted cartel leaders captured or killed, yet drug trafficking volumes and violence did not significantly decline
- Eliminating cartel leaders typically results in territorial fights between competing groups rather than reduced criminal activity
- Cartels are economically motivated - drug trafficking is lucrative enough to ensure endless recruitment and expansion regardless of military losses
- The Mexican military already outmatches cartels in firepower; the core problem is insufficient state capacity to govern territory and prevent new criminal organizations from filling power vacuums
- Building Mexican state capacity, intelligence services, and judicial integrity offers a more durable solution than military force alone
Assumptions
- Historical patterns of cartel behavior will continue in the future
- Economic incentives are the primary driver of cartel recruitment and operations
- State capacity building is feasible and can be effectively implemented
- The U.S. consumer market for drugs will remain substantial
- Mexican government institutions can be reformed and strengthened