Military Campaign Against Iran Is Achieving Strategic Victory and Creating Conditions for Regime Change
Source: Mark Dubowitz, Richard Goldberg. "Glimpsing Victory in Iran - The Atlantic." March 16, 2026. www.theatlantic.com
The Gist
The authors argue that the ongoing U.S.-Israeli military attack on Iran is working exactly as planned. They claim Iran's military has been badly damaged, its leaders killed, and the country isolated internationally, which will eventually lead to the Iranian government's collapse.
Conclusion
The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran is succeeding in its strategic objectives and creating unprecedented conditions for the eventual collapse of the Islamic Republic
Premises
- Iran's military capabilities have been severely degraded, with 90% reduction in ballistic missile launches and 95% reduction in drone attacks
- The campaign successfully eliminated key Iranian leadership including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and 40 senior commanders
- Iran is more diplomatically isolated than at any point since 1979, with 135 countries condemning Iran at the UN
- The regime's regional proxy network (Hamas, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias) has provided minimal effective support
- Military pressure is creating internal fractures, with reports of desertions and refusal to obey orders among Iranian forces
- The campaign is proceeding through planned phases: military degradation, increased repression costs, and eventual internal upheaval
- Iran faces simultaneous challenges it has never confronted before: leadership decapitation, military degradation, economic strangulation, regional isolation, and internal legitimacy collapse
Assumptions
- Military force can create conditions for political change in authoritarian regimes
- The Iranian regime's survival depends on its ability to project power regionally and suppress domestic dissent
- International isolation will weaken the regime's position significantly
- Iranian people desire regime change and will act if given opportunity and support
- Sequential military campaigns can achieve both tactical and strategic political objectives