Military action against Iran without a coherent strategy for Iranian self-determination will fail to create stability
Source: Anne Applebaum. "Trump Has No Plan for the Iranian People - The Atlantic." February 28, 2026. www.theatlantic.com
The Gist
Applebaum argues that just bombing Iran won't work because Trump has no plan to help Iranian people build a stable government afterward. She says the US has been inconsistent in its approach and has actually made things worse by cutting funding for groups that could help Iranian civil society organize.
Conclusion
The Trump administration's bombing of Iran will not achieve regional stability because it lacks a coherent strategy to help the Iranian people build legitimate governance and self-determination
Premises
- The bombing was launched without explanation, congressional approval, or public support, indicating lack of strategic planning
- Trump's messaging has been contradictory - encouraging Iranian uprising while his envoy simultaneously described Iran as a potential diplomatic partner
- For decades, US policy has focused on managing Iranian regime tactics (nuclear weapons, proxies) rather than addressing the root problem of the theocratic ideology
- The Trump administration has actively dismantled tools that could help Iranian civil society, including defunding human rights groups and media projects
- Military action alone cannot create stable governance - Iran needs self-determination and pluralist government, not another dictatorship
- The Iranian opposition is fragmented with competing visions (civil society activists, ethnic minorities, monarchists, military factions), requiring careful strategy to unite
- Regional peace requires Iran to transform from an insurgency headquarters into a normal country focused on its citizens' prosperity
Assumptions
- Stable governance requires legitimacy from the governed people, not just military victory
- The Iranian regime's theocratic ideology is the fundamental problem that must be addressed
- Iranian civil society and opposition movements have the potential to build better governance if properly supported
- Regional stability depends on Iran becoming a normal, law-abiding state rather than remaining a destabilizing force