Midterm Rout Signals the End of Trump's Dominance and a Rising Left
Source: Paul Heideman. "The Donald Trump Era in American Politics Is Ending." November 4, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that the midterm results were a crushing defeat for Trump caused by his own bad decisions, and that all the money behind Republicans couldn't save them. As a result, Republicans will start distancing themselves from Trump, Democrats have a big enough majority to push a more progressive agenda, and the Left is growing and should expand its efforts.
Conclusion
The 2026 midterm results show that Donald Trump's dominance over American politics is ending, Republicans will increasingly abandon him ahead of 2028, and the Left has room to grow and should expand into new battlegrounds.
Premises
- Democrats won a decisive midterm victory, with roughly 245 House seats and 54-55 Senate seats, the largest dual-chamber majorities for either party since the Trump era began.
- Trump's own choices caused the defeat: he imposed weak Senate candidates over state-party preferences, pushed a Florida gerrymander that backfired, waged an unpopular war on Iran, and ignored voters' anger over the cost of living.
- Republicans' large financial advantage, including more than $400 million in Trump's super PAC and heavy billionaire spending, failed to prevent the loss, so money cannot shield Trump or the GOP from voter backlash.
- Trump is unlikely to recover his popularity in the next two years, so ambitious Republicans will have strong incentives to distance themselves from him, and some, like DeSantis, already are.
- Larger Democratic majorities reduce the leverage of individual centrist holdouts like Manchin and Sinema, so Democratic policy will more closely track the caucus majority.
- Left candidates, including DSA members and DSA-aligned figures, won in many places including competitive races in Kentucky and Florida, and exit polls showed three times as many young voters identifying as democratic socialists as MAGA, indicating the Left has not hit its ceiling.
Assumptions
- One midterm election is a reliable indicator of a durable political realignment rather than a normal midterm backlash against the president's party.
- Republican politicians respond primarily to electoral incentives and will abandon a president seen as a liability.
- Trump's popularity will not recover, and his cognitive or mental state is deteriorating in ways that hinder him.
- Electoral wins by DSA-affiliated candidates reflect growing mass support for socialism, not local or candidate-specific factors.
- Youth self-identification as democratic socialist translates into durable political support and turnout.
- The Democratic caucus's center of gravity is more progressive than its marginal moderate members.
- Trump's influence depends on electoral success and party elite deference, not on a durable base or movement identity.