Lula's Runoff Prospects Threatened by US Interference, Weak Governance, and Right-Wing Momentum
Source: Aldo Cordeiro Sauda. "Lula Is in Danger of Losing Brazil’s Presidency." October 5, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that Lula is at real risk of losing Brazil's presidential runoff to Flávio Bolsonaro, because the first-round results were much worse than in 2022, the far right gained institutional power, U.S. interference turned the race into a fight about judicial corruption (which favors the right), and Lula's government has delivered too little tangible improvement for working- and middle-class Brazilians—relying instead on expanding debt rather than fixing wages, labor rights, or public services. To win, the article says, Lula needs to offer a much stronger, more hopeful economic message to workers.
Conclusion
Lula is in serious danger of losing the Brazilian presidency to Flávio Bolsonaro in the runoff, and must offer working people a stronger reason to hope in order to win
Premises
- Flávio Bolsonaro finished 2.2 million votes ahead of Lula in the first round, a far worse result for the left than in 2022, when Lula led by six million votes
- The far right made broad gains in the Senate, Chamber of Deputies, and gubernatorial races, outpacing left-wing parties' modest gains
- US pressure on Brazil's Federal Police and Supreme Court shifted the campaign's focus to judicial corruption scandals (e.g., the Banco Master affair), which is terrain favorable to the far right rather than policy debates favorable to Lula
- Lula's third government has been the least transformative of his three terms, constrained by a post-coup institutional order that weakened the presidency relative to Congress
- Material conditions for working people remain difficult despite lower unemployment and reduced hunger: food prices and quality have worsened, labor protections remain unrestored, and precarious gig/freelance work has grown
- The PT's governing strategy has relied on expanding working-class debt (housing, transport, education) rather than structural redistribution, leaving middle- and lower-middle-income voters dissatisfied and shifting their support to Flávio
- Polling shows Lula's support concentrated among the poorest voters while middle-income and wealthier voters increasingly favor Flávio, indicating insufficient cross-class appeal
Assumptions
- Electoral outcomes are substantially shaped by material living conditions and economic sentiment among the working and middle classes
- US government interference (via Magnitsky sanctions, pressure on the Federal Police/Supreme Court) meaningfully influenced the first-round campaign narrative and outcome
- A focus on judicial corruption inherently benefits the far right more than the left
- Debt-based economic policy constitutes a weaker or more fragile form of material improvement than direct redistribution or rights restoration
- Lula's campaign and governing strategy can still be altered before the runoff to improve his chances
- The Workers' Party's institutional caution (e.g., not restoring labor rights, relying on private financing schemes) is a a causal factor in eroding its working-class base, not merely coincidental