Lula Must Win: Flávio Bolsonaro Is Corrupt and Backed by Foreign Interference, but Street Mobilization Gives Lula a Real Chance
Source: Benjamin Fogel. "Lula Must Win. Now It Looks Like He Can.." October 23, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that Flávio Bolsonaro is corrupt and would threaten Brazil's democracy and social programs, so Lula should win. Although Lula faces biased institutions, foreign meddling, and a strong right-wing online culture, his supporters' big street and digital mobilization and Flávio's scandals have closed the gap enough that Lula now has a real shot.
Conclusion
Lula should win Brazil's runoff, because a Flávio Bolsonaro victory would install a corrupt, authoritarian-aligned right wing and reward foreign interference. Lula's late surge, driven by mass street and digital mobilization and exposure of Flávio's scandals, gives him a real chance of winning despite structural disadvantages.
Premises
- Flávio Bolsonaro is personally corrupt and scandal-ridden, as shown by reports that he partied with a vaccine lobbyist who gave him a Rolex and brought prostitutes during the COVID-19 pandemic, and that he is tied to banker Daniel Vorcaro.
- Flávio's team and allies have signaled a policy agenda hostile to social rights, including a health minister opposed to universal health care and a finance minister who has talked about cutting Bolsa Família and other social programs.
- The Bolsonaro movement is rooted in anti-democratic politics, including the 2023 coup attempt that planned to assassinate Lula, Alckmin, and Moraes, and it now holds a dominant position in Congress and a digital mass party structure.
- The electoral playing field is tilted against Lula by US intervention, Big Tech manipulation, favorable TSE rulings for Flávio (such as censoring an ad on his criminal record), and a corrupt network in major media firms.
- Lula's campaign has recently surged through a digital operation (the 8.2 million-follower 'Lula's Army'), historic street mobilizations, Flávio's poor debate performance, and a labor victory (the five-day work week), narrowing the polls to 45 percent for Flávio against a point behind for Lula in one poll, which makes a Lula win plausible.
Assumptions
- Corruption and authoritarian ties are disqualifying, and avoiding them is a sufficient reason to prefer Lula.
- Narrowing in one or a few polls (e.g., Qeast) reflects a real, durable shift in the electorate.
- Street mobilization and online campaigns can translate into votes and turnout, countering algorithm-driven right-wing influence.
- Reports from outlets like Piauí are accurate and the alleged conduct of Flávio and Justice Nunes Marques is true.
- The 'Lula must win' normative claim rests on a shared view that defending the post-1988 democratic order and social programs is the paramount concern.
- Foreign (US) and Big Tech interference is real, consequential, and favors Flávio.