Lib Dems should keep Ed Davey as leader because his seat-focused strategy works and a leadership challenge would help the right
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/editorial. "The Guardian view on the Liberal Democrats: now is not the time to change leader | Editorial | The Guardian." October 12, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The Guardian says the Lib Dems should stick with Ed Davey because his careful, seat-targeting approach has more than sextupled the party's MPs. A leadership fight would hand ammunition to rivals and could help the Tories and Reform win power, so critics should hold back.
Conclusion
The Liberal Democrats should not change leader now: Ed Davey's strategy is delivering seats and a leadership challenge would damage the party and risk helping the Conservatives and Reform UK into government.
Premises
- Davey is the most successful liberal parliamentary leader in a century, and his strategy has been ruthlessly efficient at converting votes into seats: 3.7m votes won 11 seats in 2019, whereas 3.5m votes won 72 seats in 2024.
- Davey's strategy is to expand beyond the party's geographic base, mobilise tactical voters and entrench the Lib Dems in winnable seats as the best bet to stop a rightwing government led by Reform UK.
- His critics prioritise headlines and a distinctive public profile (for example, owning an issue or attacking Labour) over winning seats, and a more populist strategy would be reckless, as the Greens' situation shows.
- Attacking Labour in its urban strongholds would split the opposition and help Reform, whereas Davey's focus on the Tories and Reform, along with his pro-Europeanism, serves the party's electoral base and goals.
- The Conservatives are mounting an offensive aimed at affluent southern 'yellow wall' voters, and Davey's £17bn tax giveaway is a pre-emptive response to it, so internal turmoil now would weaken the party when it is most needed.
- A leadership coup would achieve little beyond giving opponents a stick to beat the party with, and could hand the Tories and Reform the keys to No 10.
Assumptions
- The change in seats between 2019 and 2024 was caused mainly by Davey's strategy rather than by wider political circumstances such as Conservative collapse or tactical voting dynamics.
- Past electoral success predicts that the same strategy will continue to work at the next election.
- Any replacement leader would pursue a different, riskier strategy, and a leadership contest would be damaging rather than renewing.
- Preventing a Reform-led or Tory-Reform government is the overriding priority for the Lib Dems and their voters.
- Visible internal dissent and leadership instability harm electoral prospects more than the underlying strategic weaknesses critics identify.
- The critics' motives are primarily headline-seeking rather than genuine strategic concern.