Labour Faces a Real Risk of Losing the Holborn and St Pancras Byelection to the Greens
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/pollytoynbee. "The byelection here in Holborn and St Pancras is Labour’s to lose. But lose it might | Polly Toynbee | The Guardian." September 8, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Polly Toynbee argues that even though this London constituency should easily go to Labour, a mix of low-turnout protest voting, strong local Green party policies (like rent controls and opposition to oil drilling), and lingering anger over Gaza could actually hand the seat to the Greens. She backs this up by citing a well-known election expert who lives locally and predicts a close Green victory, while acknowledging Labour's candidate is personally strong and popular.
Conclusion
Although Holborn and St Pancras is nominally a safe Labour seat, Labour could plausibly lose the byelection to the Green party.
Premises
- Byelections are idiosyncratic, low-turnout events where voters treat their vote as a 'free hit' to protest or send a message rather than a decision with real consequences.
- The constituency's demographics (young, highly educated, socially mixed, high proportion of renters and social housing residents) favor left-wing protest voting against a governing Labour party.
- The Green party has clear policy differentiators that resonate with local voters, including opposition to nuclear weapons, support for rent controls, opposition to North Sea oil and gas drilling, and calls for rapid nationalisation of utilities.
- Gaza is a particularly potent issue locally: in 2024 a pro-Palestinian independent candidate came second with 18.9% of the vote, and recent arrests of pro-Palestine protesters give the Greens further ammunition against Labour.
- A respected psephologist (Peter Kellner), who lives in the constituency, predicts a close Green win, arguing this is exactly the type of seat a sitting Labour government tends to lose in a byelection.
- Labour's likely candidate, Sagal Abdi-Wali, is a strong, locally embedded, popular figure whose selection could counteract some of the Green momentum, but she cannot fully neutralize deep-seated anger over Gaza (e.g., a lecturer says they will 'never vote Labour again' over the issue).
- The Green leader Zack Polanski seeking the nomination himself increases the salience and strength of the Green campaign in this specific race.
Assumptions
- Byelection voting behavior is fundamentally different from general election behavior, making protest votes more likely.
- The Green party's specific policy platform is uniquely appealing to this constituency's demographic makeup rather than to voters generally.
- A single expert's (Kellner's) prediction is a reasonably reliable indicator of likely outcomes despite most other polling/analysis favoring Labour.
- Anger over Gaza is deep and persistent enough among a meaningful subset of voters to override other considerations, including the personal appeal of the Labour candidate.
- Reform's attacks on Abdi-Wali will galvanize Labour voters rather than suppress turnout or damage her further.
- Local council performance (Labour holding a 10-point lead in May's local elections) is a less reliable predictor of byelection outcomes than national/psephological byelection patterns.