Israel's October Election as the Last Chance to Halt Democratic Collapse and West Bank Annexation
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jonathanfreedland. "This Israeli election could be the country’s last – this week I saw that for myself | Jonathan Freedland | The Guardian." September 18, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that Israel's upcoming election in October 2026 isn't just important—it might be the last real chance to stop the country from becoming an authoritarian state, because Netanyahu's government has already been dismantling democratic checks like the courts and enabling rapid, aggressive settlement expansion that's crushing any hope of a Palestinian state. He says if Netanyahu wins again, the courts (the last real check on his power) will likely be destroyed, and the West Bank situation will become irreversible, so voting him out is the best hope for both Israelis and Palestinians, even though outside actions like boycotts or sanctions have proven less effective or even harmful.
Conclusion
The 27 October 2026 Israeli election is uniquely critical because a Netanyahu coalition victory would likely mean the end of meaningful checks on executive power in Israel and the effective foreclosure of any viable Palestinian state, making the ejection of this government from office the best remaining hope for averting catastrophe for both Israelis and Palestinians.
Premises
- The Netanyahu government has spent four years systematically dismantling liberal-democratic checks and restraints, including a prior attempt to gut the supreme court, moving toward an 'elective dictatorship.'
- Democratic norms are visibly breaking down: officials calling for stripping filmmakers' citizenship, mob intimidation of critics' families, and a smear campaign (via Sara Netanyahu) accusing a political rival of complicity in the 7 October attacks without evidence.
- The courts remain the last serious institutional obstacle to Netanyahu's power, and if he wins re-election, observers expect the judiciary to be effectively eliminated, especially since it threatens to halt his corruption trial.
- An Israeli anti-occupation activist states that as long as courts and democratic institutions stand, Israel can 'turn back,' but if they fall, the country goes 'off a cliff' — tying domestic democratic collapse directly to the fate of the occupied territories.
- On-the-ground observation in the West Bank shows accelerating, systematic dispossession: destroyed villages (Mu'arrajat, Ras 'Ein al 'Auja), settler violence described by a US ambassador and former Israeli PM as 'ethnic cleansing,' and roughly 250 new settlements/outposts since 2023 encircling Palestinian cities and blocking territorial contiguity needed for a viable Palestinian state.
- This settlement expansion is being directed by Netanyahu's coalition, with settler leader Bezalel Smotrich in de facto control of the West Bank, and the government turning a blind eye to settler violence.
- External actions (boycotts, sanctions like Miliband's package) have limited or even counterproductive effects on the ground (e.g., closure of the UK consulate cutting aid mechanisms to Palestinians), making the internal electoral outcome the most consequential lever for change.
Assumptions
- A Netanyahu-led coalition victory would translate directly into the destruction of judicial independence rather than being checked by other forces (public opposition, international pressure, internal party dynamics).
- The trajectory of settlement expansion and West Bank dispossession is causally and politically linked to the survival of Netanyahu's government rather than being a longer-term structural trend that would continue regardless of who wins.
- The author's first-hand observations during a single visit are representative of broader national trends rather than anecdotal or unrepresentative snapshots.
- Removing Netanyahu's coalition, even if his replacement (per the Eisenkot-led bloc) is not a 'peacenik,' would meaningfully alter the West Bank situation and reverse democratic erosion.
- The comparison to Turkey/Russia-style autocracy is an apt characterization of the endpoint if courts are eliminated, implying a threshold beyond which democratic recovery becomes practically impossible.