Israel's election outcome, whoever governs, leaves the country more deeply and irreconcilably divided than ever
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/dahlia-scheindlin. "A bitter night in Israel for all who craved a fresh start. Netanyahu survives for now – and we are more divided than ever | Dahlia Scheindlin | The Guardian." October 28, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author says Israel's election left everyone swinging between hope and despair. Whoever ends up governing, large groups of Israelis feel they cannot live under the other side's rule. She argues that the left, the centre and Arab citizens have little to hope for, and that the country is more fractured than ever, to the point of questioning whether its people have anything in common.
Conclusion
Whatever coalition emerges, Israel's election has revealed and deepened divisions so profound that blocs and camps are irreconcilable. The left and centre, and Arab citizens in particular, face bleak prospects, and the country faces existential questions about whether its people share anything in common.
Premises
- Exit polls and the real vote count diverged sharply. The exit polls showed Netanyahu's coalition with only 50 of 120 seats, but the count later put his bloc significantly ahead of the four opposition Zionist parties, so each camp experienced both triumph and despair within hours.
- Opposition voters, a majority of those who voted, see another Netanyahu-led coalition as extremist, anti-democratic and pro-war, and cannot fathom surviving under it.
- A clear majority of voters (perhaps 74 seats' worth) backed ideologically rightwing parties, including rightwing opposition parties led by Lieberman and Bennett. So the centre and left face a nationalist, militarist, illiberal Knesset majority regardless of who forms the government.
- Arab-Palestinian citizens turned out in unprecedented numbers (over 75%) and won 17-18 seats in the initial projections, with the aim of ousting the current government. But three of the four Zionist opposition parties prefer to exclude them from coalition-building, so their historic participation may achieve nothing.
- The roughly 20% of Israelis who identify as leftwing have little to hope for, even though the moderately leftwing Democrats party roughly doubled its strength.
Assumptions
- A divided electorate with mutually incompatible visions of the state implies a deeper, more dangerous division than in past elections.
- The right-wing parties of the opposition (Lieberman, Bennett) would not materially change the policies the author considers extremist.
- The author's characterization of the Netanyahu bloc as extremist, anti-democratic and theocratic is shared by opposition voters and reflects reality.
- The preliminary count will broadly hold, and Netanyahu's bloc or a right-leaning majority will remain dominant.
- Exclusion of Arab parties by Zionist opposition parties is a durable political constraint rather than a negotiating position.
- Political division on this scale threatens national cohesion and may prompt emigration.