Israel's Election Outcome Matters Little Because Right-Wing Security Consensus Precludes Real Change or Peace
Source: Tamara Davison. "The Israeli election is still being decided, but I know how it will turn out.." October 28, 2026. slate.com
The Gist
The author argues that whoever wins Israel's election, little will change for Palestinians or for peace, because almost every major candidate and most voters back a tough, security-first approach. Fear, polarization, and a media environment that hides the war's costs reinforce this. Palestinians affected by Israeli policy can't even vote.
Conclusion
Regardless of who wins Israel's election, fundamental change toward peace or improved conditions for Palestinians and neighbouring populations is unlikely, because the Israeli political mainstream and public share an entrenched, security-first, right-leaning consensus.
Premises
- Nearly all major contenders to Netanyahu (Eisenkot, Lieberman, Bennett) reject or downplay a two-state solution, and even the left-leaning Democrats consider it unrealistic in the near term.
- Voters and ordinary Israelis interviewed prioritize military strength and security over diplomacy, with a pervasive sense that Israeli identity is under threat and enemies must be defeated at all costs.
- Campaigning centers on external threats and secure borders, even expanding into other countries, while media and propaganda shield Israelis from images of devastation in Gaza.
- Palestinians in the occupied territories cannot vote, and those interviewed see no sign the election will change their situation.
- Deep domestic polarization and fear, along with distrust over the legitimacy of results, mean that even a change in government is unlikely to address deeper national fractures.
Assumptions
- Candidates' stated positions on the two-state solution reliably predict their governing behavior.
- A handful of interviews and observed scenes are representative of Israeli public opinion broadly.
- Peace or meaningful change requires a political shift toward Palestinian self-determination or a two-state-type settlement.
- Coalition dynamics will not allow a government to depart sharply from the right-wing consensus.
- Public attitudes and political priorities are stable and will not be altered by a new government.