Israeli Depopulation of Gaza and Southern Lebanon Signals Intent to Annex, Based on Historical Pattern
Source: Gilbert Achcar. "Israel Is Accelerating Plans to Annex Neighboring Lands." October 26, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that when Israel has wanted to keep land permanently, as in 1948 and the Golan Heights, it has emptied it of its people and destroyed their homes, but it has not done this on land it planned to give back. Since Gaza and southern Lebanon are being emptied and destroyed in the same way, he concludes Israel plans to annex them, and that only strong US pressure can stop this.
Conclusion
Israel's current government intends to annex as much as possible of the Gaza Strip and a roughly 600 sq km security zone in southern Lebanon, and only firm international pressure, chiefly from the United States, can prevent this.
Premises
- In 1948, Israel combined ethnic cleansing (depopulation, ban on return, destruction of the built environment) with taking full control of territory.
- In the Golan Heights, which Israel intended to keep permanently, it repeated this pattern and later annexed the land in all but name; by contrast, in territories it intended to return to Arab sovereignty (such as Sinai), it did not use depopulation and destruction.
- From this historical record, Israeli occupation resorts to ethnic cleansing and destruction wherever the aim is full annexation, but not where it intends to return land.
- Gaza and southern Lebanon's 'security zone' have been depopulated through flight and expulsion, bans on return, and extensive destruction of the built environment, the same pattern as in 1948 and the Golan.
- Government officials openly discuss reoccupying most of Gaza (about 70 percent is currently occupied), and no major opposition figure has categorically repudiated annexation.
- The United States is the only power with enough leverage over Israel to deter annexation and force withdrawal.
Assumptions
- The historical correlation between depopulation and annexation is a reliable indicator of intent rather than a coincidence or the result of other motives, such as security or wartime necessity.
- The depopulation and destruction in Gaza and Lebanon are deliberate policy rather than incidental consequences of military operations.
- The characterization of events in Gaza and Lebanon as ethnic cleansing is accurate and comparable to 1948.
- Past patterns (1948, Golan, Sinai) are sufficiently analogous to the current situation to support inference about present intentions.
- Statements by officials and the silence of the opposition reflect actual policy direction.
- US pressure would be effective and the US is willing to apply it.