Israel May Use Nuclear Weapons Against Iran Due to Military Failures and Existential Threat Perception
Source: Arron Reza Merat. "Israel Has Nuclear Weapons. It May Use Them.." March 18, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that Israel might use nuclear weapons against Iran because Israel's defenses are failing badly and its leaders see Iran as an existential threat. Since Israel has shown no restraint in this conflict and believes in destroying enemies completely, nuclear escalation becomes possible if Israel feels cornered.
Conclusion
Israel may resort to using nuclear weapons against Iran if it perceives itself as existentially threatened in the current conflict
Premises
- Israel's missile defense systems (Iron Dome, Arrow 3, David's Sling) are failing against Iranian attacks, with intercept rates as low as 5% rather than the claimed 87%
- Despite superior air power, the US and Israel have failed to neutralize Iran's missile capabilities or achieve regime change
- Israel possesses over 100 nuclear warheads and considers nuclear weapons the 'Samson option' for existential threats
- Israel's government has shown no restraint since October 7, 2023, and Israeli citizens broadly believe in eradicating enemies
- Tel Aviv's small geographic area (20 square miles) housing half of Israel's population makes the existential threat threshold easily reachable
- Iran faces a security dilemma where winning conventionally could provoke Israeli nuclear escalation, while losing could mean national fragmentation
- Iran likely has the capability to quickly develop nuclear weapons from its existing uranium stockpile if it chooses to weaponize
Assumptions
- Military failure and perceived existential threat will drive Israeli nuclear decision-making
- Netanyahu's government represents broader Israeli sentiment about dealing with enemies
- Iran's conventional military success constitutes an existential threat to Israel
- Nuclear weapons use follows rational calculation of existential threat rather than purely strategic considerations
- The current conflict trajectory will continue escalating rather than de-escalating