Iran's New Leader Will Test Trump's Resolve Through Oil Price Manipulation
Source: Jim Newell. "The new Ayatollah Khamenei bets on the iron law of TACO.." March 14, 2026. slate.com
The Gist
Iran's new leader thinks he can force Trump to give up on the war by keeping oil prices high through blocking oil shipments. The author believes this strategy might work because Trump doesn't like high gas prices hurting his popularity, and Republican politicians are already getting nervous about their reelection chances.
Conclusion
The new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is betting that rising oil prices from continued conflict will force Trump to end the war before achieving his objectives
Premises
- Mojtaba Khamenei has explicitly stated he will continue using the 'lever of closing the Strait of Hormuz' to disrupt oil supplies
- Trump has historically shown low tolerance for sustained high oil prices that hurt his political standing
- Congressional Republicans are already showing 'panic attacks' and 'noticeable uptick in angst' about rising gas prices affecting their reelection chances
- The war is expensive, depleting munitions stocks, and causing American casualties, creating additional pressure for resolution
- Unlike other regime changes, Khamenei appears 'pissed off' and 'not really in dealmaking mood' due to personal losses (dead family members, injuries)
Assumptions
- Oil price increases directly translate to political pressure on Trump
- Trump prioritizes domestic political considerations over foreign policy objectives
- Congressional Republican electoral concerns significantly influence Trump's decision-making
- Iran has the capability to effectively disrupt oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz
- Trump's statement about ending the war 'when I feel it in my bones' indicates he lacks a clear strategic timeline