Iran's Leaders Are Strategic Fools, Not Chess Masters
Source: Eliot A. Cohen. "The Strategic Follies of the Islamic Republic - The Atlantic." March 23, 2026. www.theatlantic.com
The Gist
Cohen argues that Iran's leaders aren't the strategic masterminds many people think they are. Instead, he says they've made terrible decisions for 50 years that have hurt Iran more than helped it, from pointless wars to failed proxy strategies.
Conclusion
The Islamic Republic of Iran's leaders are strategic idiots whose half-century record reveals consistent folly rather than the strategic brilliance often attributed to them by Western observers
Premises
- Iran chose disastrous tactics in the Iran-Iraq War, including human-wave attacks by teenagers that resulted in massive casualties for no strategic gain
- Iran's confrontations with the US in the 1980s (hostage crisis, attacking Gulf shipping) led to military humiliation and achieved no national interest objectives
- Iran's proxy strategy against Israel completely backfired - Hamas was ground down, Hezbollah shattered, Syria collapsed, and the Houthis were silenced
- Iran's nuclear program, despite massive investment, was repeatedly sabotaged and ultimately destroyed in the 2025 Israeli-American strikes
- Iran's current strategy of attacking Gulf neighbors has only intensified American pressure and permanently alienated potential allies
- Iran's domestic situation has deteriorated catastrophically - water shortages, drug addiction, economic collapse, and popular uprisings requiring mass civilian killings
- Iran's stated objectives (destroying Israel, expelling US from Persian Gulf) have no connection to rational national interests and have brought only devastation
Assumptions
- Strategic success should be measured by achieving stated objectives while minimizing costs and casualties
- Rational state behavior involves pursuing policies that advance genuine national interests
- Western observers tend to overestimate enemy strategic capabilities due to 'strategic orientalism'
- A regime's strategic competence can be judged by examining patterns of decision-making over decades