Iran's Hormuz blockade creates unresolvable conflict due to incompatible objectives of all parties
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jack-watling. "Iran’s Hormuz blockade is its most powerful card against Trump and Israel. It won’t back down easily | Jack Watling | The Guardian." March 16, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Iran is blocking oil ships in the Strait of Hormuz to force the US and Israel to back down from attacks. However, everyone involved wants different things that can't all happen at the same time - Iran wants to look strong, Trump wants total victory, Israel wants Iran's government to collapse, and Russia wants the crisis to continue. Because these goals conflict so much, the crisis won't end quickly.
Conclusion
The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz will not be resolved quickly because the conflicting objectives of Iran, the US, Israel, and other actors make compromise extremely difficult
Premises
- Iran needs to re-establish deterrence by imposing massive economic costs through the Hormuz blockade after its previous deterrent failed
- Trump's political objectives go beyond military degradation to include regime change and being seen as the winner, which conflicts with Iran's need to have the last word
- Israel wants Iranian regime collapse or prolonged internal strife and will continue strikes that complicate negotiations
- Decentralized Iranian command means IRGC elements may continue attacks even if the government seeks de-escalation
- Russia has strong incentives to prolong the crisis as it benefits from higher oil revenues and global distraction from Ukraine
- The US cannot eliminate Iran's threat to shipping entirely through military means alone, requiring diplomatic resolution
Assumptions
- Iran's previous deterrent strategy through proxies was effective until recently
- Economic pressure through oil supply disruption will influence US policy decisions
- Military solutions alone cannot fully secure the Strait of Hormuz
- All parties are rational actors pursuing their stated strategic objectives
- Russia can extend the crisis without risking direct confrontation with the US