Iranian Victory Would Create a More Dangerous and Emboldened Regime
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/by/the-ezra-klein-show. "Opinion | What if Iran Wins This War? - The New York Times." April 3, 2026. www.nytimes.com
The Gist
The expert argues that if Iran wins this war, they'll become much more dangerous because victory will make them confident and teach them that military strength works better than diplomacy. This could lead them to be more aggressive and even try to get nuclear weapons.
Conclusion
If Iran wins this war, it will result in a more dangerous and emboldened Iranian regime that poses greater long-term threats to global security
Premises
- Iran would control the Strait of Hormuz and could charge tolls to ships, giving them significant economic leverage
- The US would have alienated partners and allies while ceding financial benefits to Russia and diplomatic opportunities to China
- Iran would learn that deterrence capabilities are more reliable than negotiations for ensuring regime survival
- A victorious Iran would be emboldened to pursue more aggressive policies, including potentially seeking nuclear weapons
- Iran's ability to endure attacks from technologically superior adversaries and emerge victorious would demonstrate their resilience and strengthen their position
Assumptions
- Iran's current regime is already dangerous and would become more so with increased confidence
- Control of the Strait of Hormuz provides significant strategic and economic advantages
- Military victory translates to political and strategic emboldening for authoritarian regimes
- Iran views negotiations as unreliable compared to deterrence capabilities
- A weakened US position globally would create opportunities for rival powers