Iran Will Not Make Peace, So the U.S. Should Stay Hard-Line Despite Apparent Calm
Source: https://www.facebook.com/americanspectator/. "Iran, Executions, and the SGO That Never Ends | The American Spectator | USA News and Politics." October 19, 2026. spectator.org
The Gist
The author says things look calm in the Iran war, but that calm doesn't mean peace is coming. Iran has always lied about its nuclear program and keeps threatening ships and the U.S., so America shouldn't back down or trust Iran's words.
Conclusion
Apparent quiet in the Iran conflict is not a sign of coming peace, because Iran will not permit peace or give up its nuclear ambitions peacefully, so the U.S. should not ease its pressure on Iran either.
Premises
- Iran has long refused to give up nuclear weapons or the ambition to build or buy them through peaceful means, and the author says he has argued this for more than two decades.
- Iran denies pursuing nuclear weapons, yet it is reportedly still developing them at the deep underground Pickaxe Mountain site, so its denials are not credible.
- Iran claims ships may pass through the Strait of Hormuz only with its permission, and attacks on shipping there have risen in October to March's high level (mines, RPGs, drones, missiles).
- Iranian officials make belligerent public threats, such as the spokesman's vow to 'expel' the U.S. from the region, which indicate hostile intent rather than a desire for settlement.
- Iran's proxies remain active (the Houthis are still attacking Saudi Arabia), and Iran continues its propaganda efforts, so there is no sign the conflict is winding down.
- The U.S. blockade and sanctions are straining Iran's economy, and U.S. forces have thwarted almost all Iranian attacks on ships, which suggests the current pressure is working.
Assumptions
- Iran's past behavior and stated positions reliably predict its future behavior, so it will never negotiate or abandon nuclear ambitions.
- Iranian statements denying nuclear aims or asserting control of the Strait are propaganda and should be disregarded.
- Continued blockade, sanctions, and military pressure are the appropriate U.S. response, and they are more likely to produce a good outcome than easing off.
- The reported Pickaxe Mountain nuclear weapons program is real and ongoing.
- The risks and costs of continued war, including escalation, do not outweigh the benefits of maintaining pressure.
- A lull in violence reflects Iranian strategy rather than a real de-escalation.