Ibn Khaldun's Historical Cycle Warns Against Mamdani's City-Owned Grocery Stores
Source: "Ibn Khaldun's Muqaddimah warns against Mamdani's NYC grocery stores | Fox News." August 30, 2026. www.foxnews.com
The Gist
The author argues that NYC Mayor Mamdani's plan to open city-owned grocery stores with subsidized prices is dangerous because it echoes a historical pattern described by a 14th-century scholar: when governments start competing with private businesses by subsidizing prices, private merchants get squeezed out, tax revenues shrink, and cities decline economically. The author uses this centuries-old warning to argue that Mamdani's seemingly helpful policy will actually make New York City poorer in the long run.
Conclusion
Mayor Mamdani's plan for city-owned, subsidized grocery stores in New York City will harm the city's commercial vitality and fiscal health, following a historical pattern of decline identified by Ibn Khaldun.
Premises
- Ibn Khaldun's 14th-century Muqaddimah describes a historical cycle where states begin with low taxes that encourage enterprise, but eventually raise taxes to fund luxury and armies, discouraging production.
- According to this cycle, as tax burdens increase and revenues decline, governments turn to subsidies and then direct commercial competition with private enterprise.
- This government entry into commerce further discourages independent merchants, causing them to leave or quit, which shrinks the tax base and weakens the state.
- Mamdani's plan involves the city owning land, covering construction costs, waiving rent and taxes, and subsidizing prices roughly 30% below retail—matching the pattern of state commercial intervention Khaldun described.
- When government subsidizes and operates in a competitive sector, private operators face distorted competition, causing capital and effort to shift away from tax-generating businesses.
- New York already suffers from high costs of living, regulatory burdens, and business flight, making it more vulnerable to the negative effects of this cycle.
- Khaldun's own prescription was to keep taxes low to preserve incentives for production and enterprise—the opposite of government-run commercial ventures.
Assumptions
- Historical patterns observed in North African and Near Eastern dynasties centuries ago are directly applicable to modern New York City's economic and political context.
- Government-subsidized grocery stores are functionally equivalent to the broader pattern of state overreach into commerce that Khaldun described.
- Private grocers will be unable to compete with subsidized city stores, leading to their decline rather than adaptation.
- The scale of a few city-owned grocery stores is sufficient to trigger the systemic effects Khaldun associated with empire-wide policies.
- Mamdani's plan represents a step in an escalating cycle rather than a targeted, limited intervention.
- Rising costs to taxpayers from subsidies will be politically and fiscally unsustainable in the way Khaldun's cycle predicts.