High school protests, linked to the yellow vests legacy, could carry Mélenchon and the French Left to the presidency in 2027
Source: Solange Manche. "High School Protests Can Transform France’s Election Campaign." October 16, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that the huge high school protests, which build on the earlier yellow vest movement, are shifting the French election toward issues like underfunded services in rural and overseas areas, which helps Mélenchon. Because the Left is better organized and has learned from past mistakes, he could even become president in 2027. The author thinks worries about left 'extremism' are overblown compared with Macron's own heavy-handed governing.
Conclusion
The student-led protest movement, which builds on the yellow vests' revelation of rural and urban inequalities, is transforming France's 2027 election campaign and gives Mélenchon and La France Insoumise a real chance of reaching the runoff and possibly winning the presidency, and warnings about left 'extremism' and an all-powerful far right are misplaced.
Premises
- Since the high school protests began in French Guiana and Mayotte, La France Insoumise has kept rising in the polls, and Mélenchon is now projected to reach the 2027 runoff in all scenarios.
- The protests are massive (over a million people in three days of strikes, 480,000 on one Tuesday) and are pushing underfunded services and left-behind areas, where Mélenchon is strongest, to the center of the campaign.
- Unlike in 2022, mass protests now coincide with the presidential campaign, and the Left is better organized and has learned from its failure to support the yellow vests (the CGT is now calling for a yellow-vest-inspired mobilization, and LFI's program targets rural and overseas areas).
- LFI's program (tackling inflation, green investment, reviving rural areas, abolishing Article 49.3) is a mainstream social-democratic platform comparable to Mamdani or Corbyn, and Macron's own record of using Article 49.3 amid unpopular cuts is the real extremism, so 'twin extremes' framing is ill-founded.
- Young people already vote mainly for the Left and Mélenchon, and the protests could mobilize high-abstention overseas populations, which counters the claim that the far right dominates among the young and strengthens the Left's electoral base.
Assumptions
- Protest momentum and the current polling lead translate into votes and are not a transient surge.
- Student and overseas protesters will vote, or can be mobilized to vote, for Mélenchon.
- Rural and left-behind voters who backed the yellow vests will support LFI rather than Le Pen.
- The mass protests will not provoke a conservative backlash or a law-and-order reaction that benefits the right.
- The yellow vests, the current student movement, and LFI's rural program form a coherent constituency with shared interests.
- Mélenchon can beat Le Pen in a runoff despite her 35% first-round projection.