Hermit Kingdoms Prove Voluntary Isolation More Durable Than Globalist Predictions
Source: The American Conservative. "The Survival of the Hermit Kingdoms - The American Conservative." February 20, 2026. www.theamericanconservative.com
The Gist
The author argues that countries that choose to isolate themselves and resist joining the global system have actually done better than experts predicted. Countries like North Korea have survived by staying independent, while U.S. efforts to force other countries to change have often backfired and made things worse.
Conclusion
Voluntary isolation and resistance to globalization has proven to be a more durable and successful model for state survival than globalist theorists predicted, and this trend will likely increase as the unipolar moment ends
Premises
- Historical examples like Tokugawa Japan show that isolation can lead to stability, infrastructure development, and protection from colonization over centuries
- Recent U.S. regime change efforts in Iraq, Libya, and Syria have been disruptive and unpopular, often creating worse outcomes than the original regimes
- North Korea has successfully survived despite sanctions and pressure by developing nuclear deterrence and skillfully balancing relationships between Russia and China
- Multiple hermit kingdoms (Bhutan, Eritrea, Turkmenistan) continue to exist and pursue independent paths despite predictions of their inevitable failure
- Former Warsaw Pact nations show nostalgia for communist-era stability, indicating dissatisfaction with current globalized systems
- The decline of American unipolar dominance is creating diplomatic space for smaller countries to navigate between great powers rather than simply aligning with one
- Even dysfunctional states can survive when they resist dominant global trends, demonstrating the power of human differentiation against homogenization
Assumptions
- State survival and sovereignty are inherently valuable goals worth pursuing
- Globalization and Western-led international integration are declining or failing systems
- Nuclear deterrence provides effective protection for small states
- Great power competition creates opportunities for smaller states to maintain independence
- Historical patterns of isolation and resistance can be applied to contemporary geopolitics