Gulf States' Stability Strategy Is Failing Due to US-Iran War
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/sanam-vakil. "The war in Iran is ripping up the Gulf’s plan for stability | Sanam Vakil | The Guardian." March 20, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Gulf countries spent decades building a strategy to stay safe by relying on US protection, making peace with Iran, and doing business with Israel. But the current war between the US/Israel and Iran is showing this plan doesn't work because the Gulf states get hurt by decisions made in Washington that they can't control.
Conclusion
The current US-Israel war with Iran is exposing the fundamental flaws in Gulf states' decades-long strategy for regional stability, forcing them to confront the reality that their three-pillar approach cannot protect them from externally-driven conflicts
Premises
- Gulf states built their stability strategy on three pillars: US security guarantees, cautious outreach to Iran, and expanding economic ties with Israel
- The war is disrupting critical economic infrastructure including the Strait of Hormuz, major shipping routes, and aviation hubs that Gulf economies depend on
- US security guarantees create asymmetric vulnerability because Washington makes strategic decisions based on its own interests while Gulf states bear the consequences
- Diplomatic diversification efforts with Iran and China cannot insulate Gulf states from US-Iran escalation
- The Gaza context makes open alignment with Israeli military objectives politically untenable for Gulf governments
- Both a prolonged war and a significantly weakened Iran would produce regional instability rather than the security Gulf states need
Assumptions
- Economic stability and diversification are essential for Gulf states' long-term viability
- Regional conflicts are primarily driven by external powers rather than local dynamics
- Public opinion in Gulf states constrains government policy options regarding Israel
- A fragmented Iran would be more dangerous than the current Islamic Republic
- Military coordination alone cannot solve underlying political conflicts