Gerrymandering and Partisan Sorting Are Eliminating Competitive House Elections
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/by/the-ezra-klein-show. "Opinion | Is This the End of Close Elections? - The New York Times." May 20, 2026. www.nytimes.com
The Gist
American House elections are becoming less competitive because political parties are drawing district maps to guarantee wins for themselves, and people are naturally clustering in areas with others who share their political views. This means most House races are decided before anyone votes, turning Congress into a system where the party that controls each state gets to pick most of the winners.
Conclusion
The combination of aggressive gerrymandering and geographic partisan sorting is transforming the House of Representatives into a system with virtually no competitive elections, similar to the Electoral College
Premises
- The number of competitive House seats has dropped dramatically from about 50 meaningful toss-ups 20 years ago to only 15 in the current election cycle
- Republican-controlled Southern state legislatures are targeting up to 19 majority-minority districts currently held by Democrats, eliminating significant Black representation
- Geographic partisan sorting has intensified, with Democratic areas becoming more Democratic and Republican areas becoming more Republican over the past two decades
- The strategy of 'maximum warfare everywhere all the time' means whichever party controls a state legislature will maximize seats regardless of how narrow their majority
- Place-based congressional districts combined with increased geographic polarization naturally creates more safe seats even without gerrymandering
Assumptions
- Competitive elections are essential for healthy democratic representation
- The current trend of decreasing competitiveness will continue or accelerate
- Geographic partisan sorting is a measurable and significant phenomenon
- State legislatures will prioritize partisan advantage over fair representation when drawing districts