Gaza as a world-changing hinge point: impunity has eroded international law and fueled spreading wars
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/steve-bloomfield. "In three years, Israel’s war on Gaza hasn’t just changed the Middle East, it’s changed the world | Steve Bloomfield | The Guardian." October 10, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that the war in Gaza has reshaped the whole world, not just the Middle East. Western governments let Israel act without consequences while demanding that Russia obey the rules, which destroyed the credibility of international law and helped fuel a growing web of wars. Because war crimes without punishment tend to get worse, the author says we must recognise this new reality before anything can change.
Conclusion
Israel's war on Gaza, enabled by Western impunity, has changed the world beyond the Middle East by accelerating the replacement of international law with military might and by driving a self-perpetuating spiral of regional conflicts. Recognising this new reality is a precondition for changing it.
Premises
- Israel's military response to the 7 October attack has devastated Gaza (more than 73,000 Palestinians killed, including 21,000 children, and towns reduced to rubble) and has been extended into wars and offensives in Syria, Lebanon and Iran.
- These Israeli-initiated conflicts have set off wider regional wars (Houthis versus Saudi Arabia, a Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey defence pact, linked conflicts in Sudan and Ethiopia) that now entangle more than a dozen countries.
- Western leaders, including Biden and other G7 leaders, backed and armed Israel despite clear rule-breaking, after invoking international law against Russia in Ukraine. This hypocrisy has discredited their moral authority and the rules-based order.
- Unlike earlier US administrations that used leverage over Israel, recent Western governments gave Israel a free pass. Because the atrocities were broadcast in real time, the impunity was visible to everyone.
- Gaza accelerated pre-existing trends seen in Tigray and Sudan (impunity for war crimes) and normalised immoral conduct, including new methods such as AI-driven targeting.
- When war crimes go unpunished they escalate, and conflicts gain momentum and harden positions, leaving few levers to stop them.
Assumptions
- Israel's actions are the primary or decisive cause of the regional escalation, rather than Iran, Hamas, or other actors' independent choices.
- Israeli conduct in Gaza and elsewhere constitutes war crimes and violations of international law, and the author's characterisation (e.g. an attempt to destroy a people) is accurate.
- Impunity causally drives escalation of violence, so accountability would restrain it.
- The pre-October 2023 'rules-based order' had real restraining force that has since been lost, rather than being largely illusory.
- Western hypocrisy and loss of authority materially affect the behaviour of states and combatants globally.
- Shifting political winds in the UK and US can translate into meaningful international accountability.