Fraud Elimination Alone Cannot Solve Medicare's Structural Insolvency Crisis
Source: Robert E. Moffit. "Ending Fraud Is Great But It Won't Fix Medicare Insolvency." June 10, 2026. thefederalist.com
The Gist
The author argues that while fighting Medicare fraud is good and could save up to $200 billion yearly, it won't fix Medicare's real problem - the program is set to nearly double in cost over the next decade due to an aging population and expensive medical technology. Instead of just fighting fraud, we need to completely restructure Medicare using market competition to control costs.
Conclusion
While eliminating Medicare fraud is important, it will not solve Medicare's long-term insolvency because the program's structural spending growth far exceeds any potential fraud savings, requiring fundamental market-based reforms instead
Premises
- Medicare fraud costs between $100-200 billion annually, but Medicare spending will more than double from $1.2 trillion to $2.4 trillion over the next decade
- Medicare has unfunded obligations of $60.3 trillion over 75 years, representing $174,000 per person
- Medicare spending is mandatory and on autopilot, accounting for 34% of all outstanding federal debt since 1966
- The aging population will grow from 60 million to 80 million people over 65 in the next 20 years while the worker-to-beneficiary ratio decreases
- Per capita health costs continue rising faster than inflation due to expensive new medical technologies
- Market-based reforms like the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program model could save $2.2 trillion over 10 years
Assumptions
- Current Medicare fraud elimination efforts will achieve maximum estimated savings
- Demographic and technological trends will continue as projected
- Market competition mechanisms can be successfully applied to Medicare without compromising care quality
- Political resistance to structural reforms can be overcome
- The Federal Employees Health Benefits Program model is scalable to Medicare's size and complexity