France's Tax-and-Spend Spiral Is a Warning, Not a Model, for California's Proposed Wealth Tax
Source: https://www.facebook.com/americanspectator/. "France Should Export a Warning, Not Its Tax Ideas | The American Spectator | USA News and Politics." October 24, 2026. spectator.org
The Gist
The author argues that France shows what happens when a government keeps expanding spending and then hunts for new taxes to pay for it: high debt, unhappy citizens, and neglected basics like schools and the military. California's proposed billionaire wealth tax follows the same pattern, so Californians should see France as a warning rather than a model.
Conclusion
California should reject Proposition 40 and the French-style approach of answering fiscal problems with new taxes on private wealth, because France's experience shows that raising taxes to fuel ever-growing spending demands leads to fiscal disaster rather than a solution.
Premises
- France has for decades answered perceived needs with more government spending and then responded to the resulting fiscal problems by seeking new revenue sources, including a wealth tax and a VAT.
- Despite taking over 52 percent of GDP in revenue, spending about 58 percent of GDP, running deficits above 5 percent, and carrying debt near 120 percent of GDP, France is still in fiscal trouble and facing unrest and a possible debt crisis.
- France's high-spending welfare state has not delivered good outcomes: youth unemployment has been persistently high (21.6 percent in Q2 2026 versus 14.8 percent in the Eurozone and 9.9 percent in the U.S.), and citizens complain about underfunded schools, army, and police.
- As social protection and health spending (mostly benefiting older people) grows as a share of the budget, other functions such as education, defense, public order, and transportation get squeezed; this 'fiscal ratchet' means transfers crowd out other state capacities.
- California's budget problem is being framed through the same ratchet: slower projected growth in federal Medicaid spending is labeled a 'cut' (actual spending is still rising 8 percent), and Sacramento is then told it must backfill the gap with a new tax.
- Prop 40's revenue estimates are likely overstated (the Legislative Analyst says 'tens of billions', not $100 billion) and the tax could reduce long-term income-tax revenue as wealthy people and their companies leave the state.
Assumptions
- France's fiscal and social problems are caused primarily by its high spending and taxation rather than by other factors (demographics, global economic conditions, labor-market rules, EU constraints).
- California's situation and political dynamics are sufficiently similar to France's that the French trajectory is a relevant predictor.
- Prop 40 would function as the start of a ratchet of ever-higher spending demands and new taxes rather than as a genuine one-time measure.
- Spending restraint and reprioritization are feasible and preferable alternatives to new revenue.
- Wealthy individuals and their companies are mobile enough to leave California in response to a wealth tax.
- Reductions in the growth of projected spending are not true 'cuts' that harm beneficiaries in a morally or practically relevant way.