Flávio Bolsonaro's Potential Victory Poses a Graver Threat to Brazilian Democracy Than His Father's Presidency Did
Source: Alex MacArthur. "The Stakes Are High in Brazil’s Upcoming Election." October 2, 2026. jacobin.com
The Gist
The author argues that even though Lula has a genuinely good record of reducing poverty and unemployment, voters frustrated by inflation might elect Flávio Bolsonaro instead. But this would be dangerous because Flávio, backed by a right-wing Congress, could pack or intimidate the Supreme Court—removing the main check that limited his father's authoritarian impulses—and push through repressive policies and subservience to the US at Brazil's economic expense.
Conclusion
Brazilians should be alarmed at the prospect of Flávio Bolsonaro winning the presidential election, as his victory—enabled by a right-dominated Congress and Supreme Court capture—could inflict more lasting damage on Brazilian democracy than Jair Bolsonaro's presidency did, despite Lula's genuine economic achievements.
Premises
- Lula's third term produced substantial material improvements: 8.6 million people lifted out of poverty, unemployment at 5.3 percent, minimum wage increases above inflation, and expanded family payments and tax exemptions.
- Despite this record, persistent inflation, expensive credit, and household debt burdens have eroded public satisfaction with Lula's governance.
- Flávio Bolsonaro and his family have been implicated in significant corruption (the $24 million solicitation from Banco Master's Daniel Vorcaro), even as a connected scandal has also damaged Lula by association with Justice Moraes.
- Unlike in 2019, the institutional checks that constrained Jair Bolsonaro—particularly an independent Supreme Court—are now vulnerable to capture, since Flávio could appoint enough justices (with Senate approval) to give the Bolsonaro family a majority on the court.
- A right-dominated Congress under Flávio has explicitly campaigned to impeach sitting justices like Moraes, threatening judicial independence further.
- Flávio has proposed concrete authoritarian and repressive policies: megaprisons, censorship-adjacent curriculum restrictions, rollback of racial equity measures, and has shown hostility to LGBT rights.
- Flávio's foreign policy stance of deference to Washington (exemplified by his letter to Marco Rubio) could harm Brazil's economic interests, given China's far greater importance as a trading partner than the United States.
Assumptions
- Supreme Court independence is a critical bulwark against authoritarian overreach in Brazil's political system.
- Past rhetoric and policy proposals (e.g., Jair's actions, Flávio's statements) reliably predict future governance behavior.
- Material economic improvements under Lula should be weighed more heavily by voters than the inflation and debt pressures voters currently feel.
- Institutional capture (court packing, congressional dominance) would translate into actual authoritarian practice rather than being checked by other forces (public opinion, civil society, federalism).
- Washington's influence via tariffs, sanctions, and lobbying constitutes illegitimate 'interference' that damages Lula unfairly rather than reflecting legitimate foreign policy concerns.
- The reader shares the author's normative commitment to democratic institutions, left-leaning economic policy, and social pluralism (e.g., opposing curriculum restrictions, racial quota rollbacks, anti-LGBT sentiment).