Excessive Polling Volume Turns Politics into a Numbers Game, Undermining Genuine Political Persuasion
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/jonathan-liew. "Polling turns politics into one big game. There are too many of them – and that does us no good | Jonathan Liew | The Guardian." September 15, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that there are simply too many political polls being published, and this overwhelming volume—not just occasional bad polling methods—has turned politics into a game about numbers and rankings rather than about actually helping people. He points to a recent scandal where a polling firm didn't disclose it was working for Reform UK, but says the real problem is a whole industry built on commercial interests, weak oversight, and an obsession with tracking public opinion instead of using leadership and persuasion to actually improve society.
Conclusion
The sheer volume of political polling—not just occasional inaccuracy or methodological flaws—has transformed politics into a self-referential game of tracking numbers, where winning the polls becomes the goal rather than actually improving people's lives; this problem is exacerbated by weak industry regulation and profit-driven, unaccountable commercial pressures.
Premises
- Political polling has repeatedly proven wildly inaccurate in high-stakes moments (2015 and 2017 UK general elections, the 2016 Brexit referendum, the 2021 London mayoral election, and the 2024 general election), yet the industry continues to expand rather than lose credibility.
- The number of polling organizations and published surveys has proliferated dramatically, with 39 member organizations in the British Polling Council and 10 separate voting intention surveys published by seven companies in just two weeks.
- Polling has become a commercial industry driven by profit rather than democratic altruism, with lobbyists, PR firms, and political parties (as evidenced by the JL Partners/Reform scandal) paying for polls that deliver favorable or desired results.
- The British Polling Council functions as a weak, under-resourced trade body with no fixed office or full-time staff, rather than a genuine regulator capable of enforcing ethical standards.
- Excessive polling distorts political reality and perception, allowing fringe parties with minimal parliamentary representation (e.g., Reform with 8 MPs) to be treated as a government-in-waiting.
- Polls can directly influence real-world political outcomes and decisions, as evidenced by James Comey's admission that Hillary Clinton's polling lead affected his decision to reopen the email investigation.
- Genuine political change and progress come from persuasion, principle, and moral leadership rather than merely tracking or chasing public opinion, as illustrated by West Germany abolishing the death penalty in 1949 despite 77% public support for it, with public opinion only later shifting to align with the policy.
Assumptions
- The sheer quantity of polls—rather than their individual accuracy or misuse—is the primary driver of harmful 'game-ification' of politics.
- Politicians, media, and the public meaningfully alter their behavior and political calculations based on poll results, rather than treating them as background noise.
- The isolated failures of specific polls (2015, 2016, 2017, 2021, 2024) are representative of a broader systemic issue with the polling industry as a whole, rather than being unrepresentative outliers.
- Commercial incentives in polling inherently corrupt objectivity, rather than being manageable through disclosure and transparency requirements.
- Public opinion, as measured by polls, should not be the primary driver of political decision-making; principled persuasion is a superior mode of politics.
- A reduction in the volume of polling would meaningfully change political culture and behavior, rather than simply shifting attention to other games or metrics.