Europe's Greatest Threat Is Internal Political Coherence, Not Trump—Russia, China, and a Possible Le Pen Presidency Pose Bigger Risks
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/mujtaba-rahman. "Europe frets about Trump. But soon he could be the least of our problems | Mujtaba Rahman | The Guardian." September 23, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that while everyone worries about Trump, the real dangers for Europe come from a weakening-but-more-aggressive Russia and an economically entrenched China. But the biggest wildcard is whether Europe can stay united to face these threats—and that unity could collapse if far-right leader Marine Le Pen wins France's 2027 presidential election, since she'd clash with the EU on nearly everything from Ukraine to the budget.
Conclusion
Europe's biggest external challenges over the next 12 months will come from Russia and China rather than the US, and Europe's ability to handle these threats hinges on maintaining internal political coherence—which could be shattered by a Marine Le Pen victory in France's 2027 presidential election.
Premises
- The transatlantic relationship, while difficult, is becoming more stable and bounded because the US and Europe have deeply interconnected security and economic interests, and areas of friction (Ukraine, Greenland, trade) are largely negotiable.
- Russia is becoming more dangerous as it becomes economically weaker, since a worsening economic outlook gives Putin incentive to escalate militarily now rather than negotiate, leading to intensified attacks on Ukraine and hybrid warfare against NATO.
- China poses a structural challenge because its subsidies, industrial overcapacity, and export-led model are non-negotiable features of its economic strategy, while the EU's economic security agenda is equally entrenched, making escalation more likely than compromise.
- The EU-China relationship is heading toward 'managed confrontation' with reciprocal restrictions and retaliations, though Europe retains leverage due to China's dependence on EU market access.
- Europe's capacity to withstand external pressure from Russia and China depends on maintaining unity among its governments.
- Marine Le Pen has a credible path to winning the French presidency (polling 35-38% in first-round support), especially if France's centrist parties remain fragmented.
- A Le Pen presidency would disrupt EU cohesion by opposing Ukraine support, undermining Russia sanctions and China policy, and clashing with Brussels over core EU functions, potentially triggering a financial and constitutional crisis.
Assumptions
- Political and economic 'coherence' among EU member states is the primary determinant of Europe's ability to manage external threats.
- Putin's strategic calculus is primarily driven by anticipated economic decline rather than other factors (e.g., battlefield conditions, domestic politics).
- China's economic model is essentially fixed and non-negotiable, precluding a diplomatic resolution to trade tensions.
- France's centrist parties will likely remain fragmented, increasing Le Pen's chances rather than consolidating opposition to her.
- A Le Pen presidency would actually follow through on stated disruptive policies rather than moderate once in power.
- US-Europe relations will continue on a stabilizing trajectory rather than deteriorating further under Trump.