Europe Should Answer Putin's Escalating Hybrid War by Redoubling Support for Ukraine
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/timothygartonash. "The more Putin escalates his attacks on Europe, the more Europe should support Ukraine | Timothy Garton Ash | The Guardian." October 10, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
Putin is attacking Europe with sabotage, drones and disinformation mainly to make Europeans give up on Ukraine. The best answer is to do the opposite and back Ukraine more strongly, because Ukraine is where Russia can actually be stopped. Europe, led increasingly by Germany, is big and rich enough to do this, but it must keep its nerve as public support wobbles.
Conclusion
Rather than focusing mainly on defending against Russian hybrid attacks, Europe should make increased support for Ukraine the central thrust of its response to Putin's escalating shadow war, because that is where Russia can be meaningfully defeated and deterred.
Premises
- Putin's main purpose in his shadow war against Europe is to break European support for Ukraine so he can subjugate it, which he regards as existential for Russia's future and his own.
- Russia's behavior reflects a long tradition of territorial expansionism and imperial ideology (e.g. Putin's statements that Russia's frontier 'ends nowhere'), so Russia will not stop of its own accord and is the most dangerous country for Europe.
- Russian expansion has historically been facilitated by cooperation with other great powers and halted only when it met equal and opposing powers; since the US under Trump no longer reliably plays that role, Europe must now be the equal and opposing power.
- Europe has the capacity to play this role: it has given more aid to Ukraine than the US, its combined economy is ten times Russia's, and Germany in particular has become a committed and central supporter in both material aid and political will.
- Ukraine is the one arena where Russia can be defeated and deterred in a meaningful sense, whereas a contest of a thousand hybrid pinpricks cannot achieve that.
- European support is under strain (unpopular leaders, AfD, National Rally, Polish and Italian skepticism, reluctance over frozen assets, up to €100bn more needed in 2027), so it must be actively reinforced to avoid fulfilling Putin's belief that democracies will crumble.
Assumptions
- Putin's hybrid attacks are primarily instrumental to the goal of undermining European support for Ukraine rather than ends in themselves.
- Strengthening Ukraine's position will in fact deter or defeat Russian aggression more effectively than direct defensive or retaliatory measures against hybrid attacks.
- Russian imperial ambitions are driven by internal ideology and tradition rather than by Western provocations such as NATO enlargement.
- Europe has the political cohesion and financial capacity to sustain and increase aid over the long term.
- Responding to coercion by escalating support, rather than appeasing or de-escalating, will not provoke worse escalation.
- Historical patterns of Russian expansion are a reliable guide to current Russian behavior.