Europe and Ukraine Have Gained Strategic Leverage as US Influence in Ukraine War Declines
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/profile/nathalie-tocci. "Angela Merkel won’t be negotiating with Putin – but the rumour reflects a truth about the Ukraine war | Nathalie Tocci | The Guardian." May 25, 2026. www.theguardian.com
The Gist
The author argues that while America has abandoned Ukraine under Trump, Europe has stepped up to fill the gap. Ukraine is now stronger militarily and more self-sufficient, while Russia's economy is cracking under the strain of war, giving Europe and Ukraine the upper hand in any future negotiations.
Conclusion
Europe and Ukraine now hold strategic leverage in the Ukraine war, having effectively replaced the US as the dominant external power supporting Ukraine's resistance against Russia
Premises
- The US under Trump has abandoned Ukraine by siding with Putin, reducing military support, and suspending sanctions on Russian oil
- Ukraine has developed significant domestic military capabilities, producing 60% of its military equipment domestically compared to complete foreign dependence four years ago
- Russia's economy is increasingly strained by the war, with most industrial sectors shrinking as resources are diverted to military production
- Russian military advances have slowed to a near halt despite massive casualties of 20,000-30,000 per month
- European commitment to Ukraine has strengthened, demonstrated by a €90 billion aid package over two years and removal of Putin ally Viktor Orbán
- Ukraine maintains confidence in its ability to continue resisting based on these material and strategic changes
Assumptions
- Military and economic trends are reliable indicators of long-term strategic advantage
- European self-interest will continue to align with supporting Ukraine regardless of moral considerations
- Ukraine's domestic military production capabilities will continue to grow and remain effective
- Russia's economic strain will eventually translate into reduced military effectiveness
- The current geopolitical alignment between Europe and Ukraine will persist