Ed Crane's Strategic Contrarianism: Taking Unpopular Libertarian Positions That History Later Vindicated
Source: Jeff Erber. "Ed Crane Was Right About Speech And The Iraq War Off The Bat." February 16, 2026. thefederalist.com
The Gist
Ed Crane was really good at knowing when to take unpopular stands that would later prove to be right. When most people supported the Iraq War, he opposed it, and now most people think it was a mistake. This strategy of being willing to look wrong in the short term helped build his organization's reputation and influence over time.
Conclusion
Ed Crane had exceptional judgment in identifying moments when liberty required defending unpopular positions, and his willingness to take principled stands on issues like free speech and the Iraq War demonstrates how strategic contrarianism can build credibility and influence over time
Premises
- Crane positioned Cato as perhaps the loudest anti-war voice in elite policy circles when opposing the Iraq War was reputationally risky (support polled at 75%), and today a plurality of Americans believe the Iraq War was a mistake
- When the Village Voice fired civil libertarian Nat Hentoff, Crane seized the opportunity to strengthen Cato's free-speech credentials by hiring him, demonstrating superior commitment to civil liberties
- Cato took forceful stands against Wall Street bailouts in 2009 through full-page newspaper ads, again taking an unpopular position that later gained broader acceptance
- Under Crane's leadership, Cato moved the Overton Window on numerous issues and libertarians were ahead of Democrats on social tolerance issues like alternative lifestyles
- Crane had a systematic approach: he identified when an issue was important enough, the libertarian view was unpopular, and that position was likely to be vindicated over time
- This strategic approach allowed a small think tank to build credibility and 'punch well above its weight' through principled patience
Assumptions
- Taking unpopular but principled positions builds long-term credibility more effectively than following popular opinion
- Historical vindication of past positions is a reliable predictor of future vindication for similar strategic choices
- Elite policy influence can be achieved through strategic timing and principled consistency rather than just resources
- Libertarian principles provide a reliable framework for identifying positions that will eventually gain broader acceptance