Demographic Change in DeSoto County Flipped Mississippi's Senate Race, Threatening Republicans Without Action on Immigration and Crime
Source: Hayden Daniel. "Mississippi's Midterm Upset Proves That Demographics Matter." November 6, 2026. thefederalist.com
The Gist
The author argues that Mississippi's Senate seat likely flipped to Democrats because DeSoto County, his home county, has become far more Black and Hispanic over 25 years, and those groups tend to vote Democratic. He says that without tougher action on immigration and crime, shifts like this will keep hurting Republicans.
Conclusion
Demographic change, driven by immigration and by migration out of Democrat-run cities, was decisive in Mississippi's Senate flip. Unless the administration takes decisive action on immigration and crime, demographic shifts will keep costing Republicans elections, to the detriment of the party and the country.
Premises
- Democrat Scott Colom narrowly leads Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith (about 1,800 votes with 96% counted), and DeSoto County, which voted Democrat in a Senate race for the first time since 1982, was the tipping-point county, with Colom up about 3,300 votes there.
- DeSoto County's population shifted from 84.7% white, 11.3% Black and 2.35% Hispanic in 2000 to 52.2% white, 36.5% Black and 6.5% Hispanic in 2020.
- The Black population growth stems from flight from Memphis, whose problems the author attributes to Democratic policies. The Hispanic growth stems from lax immigration policy.
- Black and Hispanic voters overwhelmingly vote Democrat, and DeSoto's Hispanic population alone (over 10,000 in 2020) is enough to account for Colom's 1,800-vote lead.
- Statewide, more than 65,000 Hispanics have been added to Mississippi's population since 2000, more than enough to swing a race this close.
- General anti-Republican factors (the Iran War, high gas prices, congressional inaction) explain the broad leftward swing, but the closeness of the race means demographic change was the factor that tipped it.
Assumptions
- Hispanic and Black residents vote Democratic at uniformly high rates, and vote at rates similar to other groups.
- Raw population counts, including noncitizens and children, translate directly into votes.
- A county-level demographic shift that is correlated with the flip was causal, and not partly offset or explained by changes in white voting patterns or turnout.
- Without the demographic change, the same national anti-GOP environment would still have left Hyde-Smith narrowly ahead.
- Immigration and crime policy can realistically reverse the demographic trends and the electoral consequences.
- The incomplete vote count (96%) accurately indicates the final result.