Democratic Midterm Landslide Will Constrain Trump's Iran War, Defense Spending, and Hegseth's Position
Source: Fred Kaplan. "What Democrats' midterms victory means for Trump's Iran war—and for Pete Hegseth.." November 4, 2026. slate.com
The Gist
The author argues that the Democrats' big midterm win, fueled partly by anger over the Iran war and high prices, weakens Trump's grip on Republicans. That makes it more realistic for Congress to cut off war funding, reject Trump's giant defense budget, and push out Defense Secretary Hegseth.
Conclusion
The Democrats' large midterm victory, driven partly by public opposition to Trump's Iran war and the tariff-related high prices, gives Congress both the means and the political incentive to restrain the Iran war, block a large defense budget increase, and likely force out Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Premises
- The midterm losses were driven in part by high prices and public hostility to Trump's war on Iran, and Trump and Vance have both acknowledged the war's role in the defeat.
- Democrats' House majority (at least 250 seats) is only about 40 seats short of a veto-proof two-thirds, and the war's unpopularity makes it plausible that 40 Republicans would join an override effort.
- The scale of the defeat has eroded the fear of Trump that kept congressional Republicans in line, since his primary threats now carry less weight.
- The 1973 Case-Church amendment shows that Congress can end a war by cutting off funds once a larger opposition majority forms and the president is politically weakened, and similar language could be drafted for Iran.
- The midterm results, with strong support for social programs and broad opposition to the war, make a sizable increase in the defense budget (including Trump's $1.5 trillion proposal) politically implausible.
- Hegseth faces bipartisan impeachment efforts (Massie), Democratic leadership threats (Jeffries), and Senate Democratic demands for his ouster, and Trump has a history of sacrificing loyalists to avoid admitting mistakes.
Assumptions
- Voters' anger over the Iran war and prices was a significant cause of the Democratic victory, and Democrats will read it as a mandate to act.
- Enough Republicans will break with Trump on war powers, funding, and vetoes once his political leverage declines.
- Congress's power of the purse can effectively constrain a president claiming Article 2 commander-in-chief authority.
- The Vietnam-era precedent is a close enough analogy to the current situation despite differences in context and political conditions.
- Democrats will be unified and willing to prioritize these measures over competing priorities such as supporting Ukraine and allies.
- Trump's willingness to blame Hegseth if he decides against restarting the war is predictable from his past behavior.