Defunding Police and Abolishing Prisons Will Increase Black Homicide Victims, Contradicting 'Black Lives Matter' Claims
Source: John R. Lott Jr.. "Socialists' Demands To Abolish Police Will Mean Dead Americans." August 10, 2026. thefederalist.com
The Gist
The author argues that Democratic politicians who claim to care about black lives are actually pushing policies—like defunding police and abolishing prisons—that will lead to more black crime victims, since crime is concentrated in specific neighborhoods and criminals mostly harm people of their own race. He backs this up by showing that black Americans themselves, according to surveys, want more police protection, not less, suggesting these politicians are out of step with the community they claim to represent.
Conclusion
Democratic policies to defund/abolish police and eliminate prisons will result in more black Americans being victimized by violent crime, contradicting the 'Black Lives Matter' rhetoric of those who support such policies.
Premises
- Prominent Democratic politicians (El-Sayed, Chevalier, Hong, Tlaib, and others) have explicitly advocated defunding or abolishing police and/or abolishing prisons
- Violent crime, including homicide, is disproportionately intraracial: about 90% of black homicide victims are killed by other black people, and 70% of black violent crime victims are victimized by black offenders
- Violent crime is heavily geographically concentrated, with 54% of U.S. murders occurring in just 2% of counties, and about two-thirds of murders within those counties occurring in small 10-block areas
- Reducing arrests, incarceration, and deterrence for violent offenders increases risk primarily for residents of high-crime (often minority) neighborhoods, since that is where offenders and victims are concentrated
- Surveys (Gallup 2020, M3 Strategies 2025, Rasmussen 2026) show black Americans overwhelmingly want the same or greater police presence in their neighborhoods and oppose abolishing police departments
- The same politicians advocating defunding police/abolishing prisons also support weakening immigration enforcement and gun control for law-abiding citizens, reflecting a broader pattern of reducing consequences for crime while limiting self-defense
- Illegal immigration (facilitated by weak enforcement) contributes to increased crime (illegal aliens overrepresented in NY prisons by 3.4x) and economic harm to low-skilled workers, including many minorities
Assumptions
- Reduced policing and incarceration directly and primarily causes increased violent crime rather than other factors (economic conditions, social services, etc.) driving both crime and policy responses
- The politicians' stated positions (some from 2020-2021) accurately represent current policy intentions and would be implemented as literally described (e.g., 'abolish police' meaning zero law enforcement presence)
- Public opinion polls measuring general sentiment about 'police presence' accurately capture nuanced views on specific defunding/abolition proposals
- Correlation between crime concentration in certain neighborhoods and reduced policing effects implies causation regarding future crime increases
- The primary motivation behind these Democratic policies is not concern for black welfare but potentially political ideology divorced from black constituents' actual preferences
- Current or near-term implementation of full 'abolition' policies is likely, rather than more moderate reforms actually being pursued