Cuba's Regime Gains Breathing Room From U.S. Hesitation and Leftist Gains Abroad, So Trump Should Act Forcefully
Source: https://www.facebook.com/americanspectator/. "Cuba’s Castro Regime Wins New Life | The American Spectator | USA News and Politics." November 5, 2026. spectator.org
The Gist
The author argues that Cuba's communist government is getting a second wind because the U.S. keeps hesitating and because leftist allies are gaining ground in Brazil and in the U.S. Congress. Since pressure and hoping for a coup aren't working and waiting helps the regime and China, he says Trump should act forcefully, including militarily, soon.
Conclusion
Cuba's Castro regime has gained renewed life and hope of survival, and because time may not favor the U.S., the Trump administration should move beyond long-term pressure to forceful measures, including military action, to remove the regime.
Premises
- Almost a year of oil blockades and sanctions has failed to make the Cuban regime budge, and its aggressive behavior at the UN suggests it will not give up power peacefully.
- U.S. signals, including Trump's vague Navy remarks, Rubio's two-year regime-change timeline, and U.S. forces tied up against Iran, can be read by Havana as a lack of serious invasion planning, giving it time to develop a survival strategy.
- Regional and domestic political developments favor the regime: a new Democratic congressional majority influenced by far-left groups aligned with Havana, Lula's election in Brazil (which could mean blockade-busting aid and diplomatic cover), and Cuban-linked destabilization in Venezuela and Colombia.
- A coup or internal uprising is unlikely because senior officers are loyal to the Castro family and dependent on GAESA, and the regime is protected by a thousand elite guards and Chinese-designed surveillance, so internal change cannot be relied on.
- Delay carries costs: China may reinforce its Cuban outpost, Cubans may lose hope of rebelling, and the administration risks losing support among Cuban exiles, 73 percent of whom favor invasion.
- The U.S. already has enough forces in the region to remove the regime without carrier groups, so military action is feasible.
Assumptions
- Removing the Cuban regime is a desirable goal and justifies military intervention.
- Sanctions and psychological pressure alone are unlikely to topple the regime.
- Havana's leaders interpret U.S. statements as signs of weakness, as the cited defector claims.
- Cuba's regime is meaningfully tied to the American left and to destabilization efforts abroad.
- Military action would succeed at acceptable cost and without a prolonged occupation or regional backlash.
- Time favors the regime and its allies more than the U.S.
- Exile opinion and Cuban dissident sentiment are reliable guides to what policy should be.