Chinese Aggressive Tactics Toward Taiwan and Japan Are Self-Defeating
Source: The American Conservative. "On Taiwan and Japan, Chinese Belligerence Backfires - The American Conservative." February 22, 2026. www.theamericanconservative.com
The Gist
China keeps trying to bully Taiwan and Japan into submission, but this strategy keeps backfiring. Every time China threatens or punishes these countries, their people rally behind leaders who stand up to China, making reunification and better relations even less likely.
Conclusion
China's belligerent and coercive approach toward Taiwan and Japan is counterproductive, strengthening anti-China sentiment and political positions in both countries rather than achieving Beijing's strategic objectives
Premises
- Chinese threats and economic penalties against Japan after PM Takaichi's pro-Taiwan stance resulted in a spectacular electoral victory for her party, winning over two-thirds of parliamentary seats
- Beijing's harsh crackdown on Hong Kong democracy, violating the 50-year autonomy agreement, generated hostile international reactions and alienated Taiwan's population
- China's coercive measures against Taiwan's DPP administrations backfired, leading to Tsai Ing-wen's landslide re-election in 2020 and DPP control of parliament
- The current Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te has adopted an even more hardline pro-independence stance than his predecessor, directly challenging Beijing's claims
- Even Taiwan's moderate KMT party, while favoring less confrontational relations, explicitly rejects reunification with Communist-controlled mainland China
- China's militant approach consistently benefits anti-China hawks in both Taiwan and Japan politically
- There is no popular mandate in Taiwan for appeasement of Beijing, regardless of which party is in power
Assumptions
- Democratic populations respond negatively to external coercion and threats
- Political leaders gain domestic support by standing up to foreign bullying
- China's primary goal is eventual reunification with Taiwan and improved relations with Japan
- Public opinion in democratic countries influences government policy
- China has alternative, less coercive policy options available